Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

Understanding the Israeli reaction and push into Southern Lebanon ..

This video does a great job on the topic

Notice the areas dominated by Shiites, and that Iran's Ayatollah is the leader of the Shiites ( similar to the Pope is a leader of the Catholics )


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Hezbollah gets a LOT of money from Iran, more than the Lebanese Armed Forces ..

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Why Israel is Trying to Conquer 10% of Lebanon
RealLifeLore



This video by RealLifeLore examines the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, detailing the potential for a permanent territorial shift. Since March 2026, the situation has evolved into a full-scale war, with Israel launching a ground invasion of southern Lebanon with the stated goal of creating a permanent buffer zone up to the Litani River (0:00-1:36).

Key Takeaways:

  • Territorial Ambitions: Israel aims to control roughly 10% of Lebanon's sovereign territory. Fears of annexation are growing, fueled by comments from Israeli officials like Bezalel Smotrich, who have drawn comparisons to the annexation of the Golan Heights (1:36-5:08).
  • Humanitarian Impact: Over a million people have been displaced, with the majority being members of Lebanon's Shiite community. The destruction of villages and the Litani River bridges has isolated the south, complicating the prospect of displaced residents ever returning home (1:39-2:20, 22:33-23:43).
  • Lebanon's Fragile State: Already struggling with a severe financial crisis since 2019 and a complex sectarian political system, Lebanon is under immense pressure. The central government is caught between Hezbollah's influence and Israel's military might, fearing that any aggressive action could ignite a new civil war (5:28-11:10, 18:50-20:09).
  • The Hezbollah Factor: Hezbollah remains a powerful state-within-a-state, funded by Iran. Despite suffering significant losses—including the death of leader Hassan Nasrallah—it continues to view this conflict as an existential fight for the Shiite community (7:03-12:20, 16:26-17:16).
Future Scenarios:The video concludes by outlining three potential paths: an unlikely Israeli withdrawal, the use of occupied territory as a bargaining chip for diplomatic recognition, or a long-term, indefinite occupation followed by potential annexation (23:55-25:16).
 
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Preston Stewart doing a good job on this, and has hit 1M subs ..

Worth watching



US Navy Issues Stark Warning in Strait Standoff
Preston Stewart

Iran threatens to shut down all shipping if the blockade isn't lifted




This video provides an update on the ongoing US-Iran tensions and the impact of the US naval blockade currently entering its third day (1:03).

Key takeaways include:

  • Status of the Blockade: As of the 48-hour mark, the US Navy has successfully prevented vessels from passing through the blockade, with nine ships complying by turning back (2:46). While some analysts note that traffic has decreased, it has not hit zero, as some vessels continue to operate in the region using methods like going "dark" or GPS spoofing (3:22-3:56).
  • Escalation Concerns: The US Navy has issued a clear warning to all vessels, stating that failure to comply will result in the use of force (1:42). There is significant concern about what happens if a vessel attempts to break the blockade, as the situation could escalate rapidly (4:19).
  • Iranian Threats: Iran has threatened to shut down shipping in broader regions—including the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea—if the blockade continues, labeling it a violation of the ceasefire (6:40-6:50).
  • Economic Impact: Experts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimate that the blockade could wipe out approximately $435 million in daily Iranian economic activity, potentially forcing oil field shut-ins within two weeks due to storage capacity limits (8:01-8:13).
  • Diplomatic Context: Despite the high-stakes military activity, the US-Iran ceasefire remains in effect, though recent negotiations have excluded the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah (0:24-1:01).
 
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mat200 said:
The official U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) statement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade was published on X (formerly Twitter) on April 14, 2026.

CENTCOM confirmed:

This statement, attributed to CENTCOM and cited by Reuters, Just the News, and Townhall, constitutes the primary official public communication from the U.S. military on the blockade's implementation. Adm. Brad Cooper later provided additional updates via social media, confirming the blockade was “fully implemented” and had halted nearly all of Iran’s maritime trade.
Click to expand...
mat200 said:
Economic Impact: Experts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimate that the blockade could wipe out approximately $435 million in daily Iranian economic activity, potentially forcing oil field shut-ins within two weeks due to storage capacity limits (8:01-8:13).
Click to expand...

Does this mean the regime will be throwing in the towel soon?
 
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tigerwillow1 said:
I don't like it that we have a big mouth loose canon president.
Then I don't like it that there are multitudes of big mouth loose canons in the press and on social media that knee-jerk react to it.
Click to expand...
Don't like his technique....but enjoy the results when he's done working on it.

dineshdsouza.substack.com

THE REAL ESTATE PRESIDENT: Iran, Nukes, And Leverage

Trump’s foreign policy confuses the Left and Right because we expect him to be ideological.
dineshdsouza.substack.com dineshdsouza.substack.com
 
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Sybertiger said:
Don't like his technique....but enjoy the results when he's done working on it.

dineshdsouza.substack.com

THE REAL ESTATE PRESIDENT: Iran, Nukes, And Leverage

Trump’s foreign policy confuses the Left and Right because we expect him to be ideological.
dineshdsouza.substack.com dineshdsouza.substack.com
Click to expand...

Come on man, you gotta keep up, that article was already posted yesterday! :)

David L said:
Trump, who can figure him out. The crazy things he post/says...

I found this article helpful in how to look at who Trump is and how he thinks.

dineshdsouza.substack.com

THE REAL ESTATE PRESIDENT: Iran, Nukes, And Leverage

Trump’s foreign policy confuses the Left and Right because we expect him to be ideological.
dineshdsouza.substack.com dineshdsouza.substack.com
Click to expand...
 
Senate votes 52 to 47 to block resolution that would have prevented further US-Iran strikes without Congressional approval

 
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Ooppsss

The U.S. Navy has confirmed an MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone crashed on April 9 over the Persian Gulf, a loss valued at over $238 million according to The War Zone.
No injuries were reported, and the cause remains unknown.



 
The Iranian regime is set to execute its first female protester in the latest of more than 1,600 death sentences linked to demonstrations against the Islamic Republic.

Bita Hemmati will be the first woman hanged at a date yet to be determined in connection with the protests that began in January, which were stamped out by Iran's government forces. Hemmati is accused by the Islamic regime of using explosives and weapons, throwing objects such as concrete blocks, participating in protests and disrupting national security, according to a press release shared by the opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran.

Hemmati's husband, Mohammadreza Majid Asl, 34, and two other men, Behrouz and Kourosh Zamaninezhad, who lived in the couple's apartment, were also sentenced to death after their property was confiscated and a trial was held.

Amir Hemmati, a relative of Bita, was sentenced to nearly six years in prison “assembly and collusion against national security” as well as “propaganda against the regime," according to the news release. Iran's government accused all five of the individuals of “operational action for the hostile government of the United States and hostile groups,” according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, which is based in the U.S.

The entire group was arrested in Tehran, Iran's capital city and the site of the largest national protests against the regime.

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