Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

EU countries that support the partial suspension of their trade agreement with Israel:

26 of 27.

If it goes through, Israel loses preferential access to its biggest trading partner, which accounts for 32% of its exports.

Source: European Commission


They say that but keep buying weapons/drones/interceptors.
 
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Iran Crumbles, Critics Scramble: Trump’s Long Game Leaves the Media Exposed | Victor Davis Hanson
The Daily Signal

Apr 14, 2026 Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words
We don't know what the ultimate prognosis of this war is, but if we take the long view, it's far more favorable to our interests than it is to our enemies.

The media’s 24-hour ragebait cycle can’t explain what’s actually unfolding in Iran. While critics swing wildly between calling Trump a “warmonger” and “weak,” the reality points to a regime that’s been militarily and strategically crippled.

Meanwhile, adversaries like Russia and China are feeling the ripple effects, and NATO’s cracks are on full display.

The long view tells a very different story—and it’s one the headlines won’t admit, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words.”



In this commentary, Victor Davis Hanson argues that we should look beyond the 24-hour news cycle to understand the true impact of the conflict in Iran. He asserts that the current media narrative often ignores empirical realities, focusing instead on political short-termism (0:15 - 1:25).

Key Takeaways:

  • Military Devastation of Iran: The war has severely crippled Iran militarily, resulting in massive losses of assets—including missiles, drones, and naval capabilities—and leaving its command-and-control structure in disarray (3:02 - 4:18).
  • Winners and Losers: While Russia has seen its Middle Eastern influence vanish and its alignment with Iran fractured (4:24), the Gulf region is shifting away from reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, potentially rendering Iran's threats regarding the strait an "inert asset" (5:21 - 6:22).
  • Global Ripple Effects: China faces challenges regarding its oil supply, and the demonstration of Western drone technology suggests a potential deterrent to aggressive actions elsewhere, such as in Taiwan (6:22 - 7:33).
  • NATO and Europe: Hanson expresses significant disappointment in European NATO allies, noting their reluctance to assist in logistical efforts, suggesting a future where the United States may rely on bilateral alliances over broad, ineffective coalitions (7:33 - 9:16).
  • Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term economic disruptions, the long-term prognosis is favorable for US interests. Hanson suggests that, like the fall of the Berlin Wall, the internal pressures on the Iranian regime could lead to significant change over time (9:16 - 11:04).