Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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So, this is what I see
1) Iranian Ballistic Missiles have proven to have the Range to hit Europe ( Diego Garcia ), this changes the expectations of threat.
2) Iranian enrichment of nuclear materials exceeded what is needed for nuclear power generation, and is approaching weapon's grade.
3) Iranian Proxies have caused numerous issues to the USA and allies, and act against the interests of the USA
4) Iran currently is in control of the Persian Gulf ( 20% of the world's Oil ) and now is in a great position of power.
5) Many oil tankers are sitting idly in the Persian Gulf, causing issues with global oil flow.
A) To counter this the USA has dropped sanctions on oil tankers with oil already loaded, so that the global oil flow can be increased.
B) The USA is sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to break Iran's gatekeeping of the Persian Gulf and reduce Iran's power.
This is going to be a far longer war than the USA population expects
I have no doubt that closure of the straits of Hormuz had been war gamed, and the threat brought up before this started.
Robert Pape has this well defined, and is worth the time to read his work ( and it is worth listening to his view on this )
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Prof Robert Pape
escalationtrap.substack.com
1) Iranian Ballistic Missiles have proven to have the Range to hit Europe ( Diego Garcia ), this changes the expectations of threat.
2) Iranian enrichment of nuclear materials exceeded what is needed for nuclear power generation, and is approaching weapon's grade.
3) Iranian Proxies have caused numerous issues to the USA and allies, and act against the interests of the USA
4) Iran currently is in control of the Persian Gulf ( 20% of the world's Oil ) and now is in a great position of power.
5) Many oil tankers are sitting idly in the Persian Gulf, causing issues with global oil flow.
A) To counter this the USA has dropped sanctions on oil tankers with oil already loaded, so that the global oil flow can be increased.
B) The USA is sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to break Iran's gatekeeping of the Persian Gulf and reduce Iran's power.
This is going to be a far longer war than the USA population expects
I have no doubt that closure of the straits of Hormuz had been war gamed, and the threat brought up before this started.
Robert Pape has this well defined, and is worth the time to read his work ( and it is worth listening to his view on this )
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Prof Robert Pape
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
escalationtrap.substack.com
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,353
- 30,776
From what I saw, the "expert's" solution was/is to kick the can down the road. In other words, no solution; revisit again in 10 years and put up with Iran's naughty behavior along the way. Screw that.
He may be have gotten a little too much into the academic exercise of what might be a solution that involves Israel but I think he lost sight of what the regime's ultimate goals are. That's the problem with academic philosophy: it's not a true science. It will NOT work. He trying to solve the wrong problem.
One of the things he's obviously right about is troops on the ground for any lengthy period of time.
Regime change is the only long term solution to the threat to the world that Iran is. Need to return to pre-1979 type of society where Iran plays nice and it's citizens thrive.
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Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Western Media doesn't show any of this to promote their agenda and ideology...which is all propaganda
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Its enshrined not in the Western African V00D00, but some where in Jerusalem
Quick...time for the jerusalema dance before the world BlOWs
Karoline's V00D00
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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- 30,776
Iran, was quickly rebuilding it's offense / defense and with Russia in trouble, and the Iranian proxies weakened, it makes sense why this was considered an opportunity to hit Iran. ( mowing the grass as some call it )
If Iran is allowed to continue to control the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz - Iran will control 20% of the world's oil
That puts it in a massive position of power.
It would allow it to strengthen itself, provide more weapons to Russia, strengthen it's proxies. Nuclear weapons for Iran should be in the pipeline.
This is a really bad option for the USA.
USA will need to find a way to counter this and if military force is a part of that counter, .. well .. thus I expect this war to last a long time.
As a result of the Iranian attacks on neighbors in the Gulf, I expect costs and supply of Oil to go up.
Tankers will have to travel further distances to supply customers.
I expect a global recession. There will be demand destruction for Oil and Oil / NatGas related products.
Due to fertilizer costs and availability, I expect less food world wide, there should be issues with this that impacts the poorer nations who do not produce enough food already. ( Egypt for example )
Trump probably will lose midterms, which will mean the end of chances to get any Trump agenda passed in Congress
Expect more terrorism from this.
If Iran is allowed to continue to control the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz - Iran will control 20% of the world's oil
That puts it in a massive position of power.
It would allow it to strengthen itself, provide more weapons to Russia, strengthen it's proxies. Nuclear weapons for Iran should be in the pipeline.
This is a really bad option for the USA.
USA will need to find a way to counter this and if military force is a part of that counter, .. well .. thus I expect this war to last a long time.
As a result of the Iranian attacks on neighbors in the Gulf, I expect costs and supply of Oil to go up.
Tankers will have to travel further distances to supply customers.
I expect a global recession. There will be demand destruction for Oil and Oil / NatGas related products.
Due to fertilizer costs and availability, I expect less food world wide, there should be issues with this that impacts the poorer nations who do not produce enough food already. ( Egypt for example )
Trump probably will lose midterms, which will mean the end of chances to get any Trump agenda passed in Congress
Expect more terrorism from this.
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,353
- 30,776
There is already talk about a Global Recession by various leaders
Lawrence Wong
Prime Minister of Singapore since 2024
Lawrence Wong
Prime Minister of Singapore since 2024
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Oceanslider
Known around here
Your statement just proves mindless TDS is not a real thing... as if that's not already obvious/common sense... here's what your "non-mindless TDS guy" says around 6:15 in the video...
"We are being led by some of the most incompetent & corrupt & amoral people who have ever been in public life in America. Now, so, these are just cartoon characters & grifters & social media stars & moral lunatics in the second Trump administration, inspiring no confidence whatsoever from Trump on down."
Brutal... and yet you don't accuse him of being infected with TDS. Why? Because you agree with the rest of what the "non-mindless TDS guy" says?
IMHO, declaring TDS is a coping mechanism used by those who don't want to hear something that doesn't fit their existing beliefs/narrative/outlook, even if they can acknowledge and accept this "alleged" reality of the Trump administration.
Or maybe I'm wrong and it's just my TDS flaring up.
Maybe you haven't been around long enough to know i often start a post with just the opposite of what I mean. Sam was a big proponent of Mueller and what he did and was doing. He's yet to say he was wrong, in fact he will still intellectually word it as justified. In that video he says stuff that sounds reasonable but will vote for Kacklea, who would give Iran and Hamas free reign. 20 million more illegals would have been a worthy price to pay just to not have someone in office that would shut the border down. He seems to understand the Islamic threat, but is willing to compromise because of his TDS.
Im these days less surprised that someone like Coleman would give him a spotlight and nod along
Sort of like Tucker and Fuentes.
One way or another, without USA action, we were going to see more and more demands and terrorism from the regime. It was definitely go down as a "L" to the world, not just the USA. It's good we took action although severely late which resulted in Iran getting in some good hits on the US, Israel and the neighbors.
Given enough time an unchallenged Iran would have developed more and more sophisticated weapons including nukes. Just think what that future would have looked like. You'd see the regime's influence topple neighboring countries' governments and exclusive control of the Strait like a toll booth.
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If you thought like a terrorist regime what are some of the unimaginable actions you would take as wounded animal?
I would suggest allowing 2,000 US Marines to enter Kharge unchallenged....then blow them all up including the oil facilities in one swoop. That's a headline and political victory. Chaos would be king. You'd destroy all your oil facilities, your neighbors', desalination plants, nuclear facilities. You'd cause maximum pain for everyone. You'd go down in a blaze of glory.
This is why it's important that opposition Iranian citizens attempt a coup.
I would suggest allowing 2,000 US Marines to enter Kharge unchallenged....then blow them all up including the oil facilities in one swoop. That's a headline and political victory. Chaos would be king. You'd destroy all your oil facilities, your neighbors', desalination plants, nuclear facilities. You'd cause maximum pain for everyone. You'd go down in a blaze of glory.
This is why it's important that opposition Iranian citizens attempt a coup.
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Trump administration allows high-ethanol gasoline to be sold this summer, easing smog rules
The Trump administration will allow high-ethanol gasoline to be sold year-round, lifting restrictions on the fuel that are typically in place to limit smog. While this year’s announcement comes ami…
thehill.com
This is good ..
“Many Will Die:” Military Expert Warns of Iran Escalation Trap | Amanpour and Company
Amanpour and Company
Mar 25, 2026 #amanpourpbs
Is America's war in Iran headed toward an escalation trap? Robert Pape, a professor of political science and an expert on global security, argues that the decapitation of Iran's leadership failed to break the regime, while upping the pressure for more force -- including raising the specter of a ground war. Pape joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the difference between initial tactical success and long-term strategic success.
Iran’s reported missile strike reaching toward Diego Garcia marks a sharp shift in this war’s trajectory.
This is not just another exchange.
It is a signal that the conflict is moving along a predictable—but dangerous—path I call the Escalation Trap.
The Escalation Trap unfolds in three stages.
Stage 1: Limited force to control the conflict.
A state launches precise strikes to degrade capabilities, signal resolve, or compel change—believing escalation can be contained.
Stage 2: Horizontal escalation.
The opponent does not collapse. It adapts—expanding the battlefield, targeting partners, and raising costs in new domains. What begins as a localized conflict spreads geographically and economically.
Stage 3: Forced expansion of the war.
The initiating side faces a choice: accept failure or escalate further—often through ground operations or direct control of territory and critical assets. This is the point where wars become far more costly and far harder to end.
We are now approaching this third stage.
..
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
I watched this moron on Triggernometry... His lack of comprehension of the basics is disturbing. He wants to pat himself on the back for the Obama solution of paying Iran tons of money to not enrich uranium (which they did anyway) and blame everything on Trump, while saying that he's not political. He has no military experience and half of what he says is basic common sense, with the rest being his myopic opinion on what he thinks will happen.
Could be
Doesn’t change the fact that most of not all US bases have been severely damaged or destroyed and US troops have pulled back/out of most of them.
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