Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,345
- 30,762
So, this is what I see
1) Iranian Ballistic Missiles have proven to have the Range to hit Europe ( Diego Garcia ), this changes the expectations of threat.
2) Iranian enrichment of nuclear materials exceeded what is needed for nuclear power generation, and is approaching weapon's grade.
3) Iranian Proxies have caused numerous issues to the USA and allies, and act against the interests of the USA
4) Iran currently is in control of the Persian Gulf ( 20% of the world's Oil ) and now is in a great position of power.
5) Many oil tankers are sitting idly in the Persian Gulf, causing issues with global oil flow.
A) To counter this the USA has dropped sanctions on oil tankers with oil already loaded, so that the global oil flow can be increased.
B) The USA is sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to break Iran's gatekeeping of the Persian Gulf and reduce Iran's power.
This is going to be a far longer war than the USA population expects
I have no doubt that closure of the straits of Hormuz had been war gamed, and the threat brought up before this started.
Robert Pape has this well defined, and is worth the time to read his work ( and it is worth listening to his view on this )
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Prof Robert Pape
escalationtrap.substack.com
1) Iranian Ballistic Missiles have proven to have the Range to hit Europe ( Diego Garcia ), this changes the expectations of threat.
2) Iranian enrichment of nuclear materials exceeded what is needed for nuclear power generation, and is approaching weapon's grade.
3) Iranian Proxies have caused numerous issues to the USA and allies, and act against the interests of the USA
4) Iran currently is in control of the Persian Gulf ( 20% of the world's Oil ) and now is in a great position of power.
5) Many oil tankers are sitting idly in the Persian Gulf, causing issues with global oil flow.
A) To counter this the USA has dropped sanctions on oil tankers with oil already loaded, so that the global oil flow can be increased.
B) The USA is sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to break Iran's gatekeeping of the Persian Gulf and reduce Iran's power.
This is going to be a far longer war than the USA population expects
I have no doubt that closure of the straits of Hormuz had been war gamed, and the threat brought up before this started.
Robert Pape has this well defined, and is worth the time to read his work ( and it is worth listening to his view on this )
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Prof Robert Pape
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
escalationtrap.substack.com
