Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,346
- 30,762
So, this is what I see
1) Iranian Ballistic Missiles have proven to have the Range to hit Europe ( Diego Garcia ), this changes the expectations of threat.
2) Iranian enrichment of nuclear materials exceeded what is needed for nuclear power generation, and is approaching weapon's grade.
3) Iranian Proxies have caused numerous issues to the USA and allies, and act against the interests of the USA
4) Iran currently is in control of the Persian Gulf ( 20% of the world's Oil ) and now is in a great position of power.
5) Many oil tankers are sitting idly in the Persian Gulf, causing issues with global oil flow.
A) To counter this the USA has dropped sanctions on oil tankers with oil already loaded, so that the global oil flow can be increased.
B) The USA is sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to break Iran's gatekeeping of the Persian Gulf and reduce Iran's power.
This is going to be a far longer war than the USA population expects
I have no doubt that closure of the straits of Hormuz had been war gamed, and the threat brought up before this started.
Robert Pape has this well defined, and is worth the time to read his work ( and it is worth listening to his view on this )
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Prof Robert Pape
escalationtrap.substack.com
1) Iranian Ballistic Missiles have proven to have the Range to hit Europe ( Diego Garcia ), this changes the expectations of threat.
2) Iranian enrichment of nuclear materials exceeded what is needed for nuclear power generation, and is approaching weapon's grade.
3) Iranian Proxies have caused numerous issues to the USA and allies, and act against the interests of the USA
4) Iran currently is in control of the Persian Gulf ( 20% of the world's Oil ) and now is in a great position of power.
5) Many oil tankers are sitting idly in the Persian Gulf, causing issues with global oil flow.
A) To counter this the USA has dropped sanctions on oil tankers with oil already loaded, so that the global oil flow can be increased.
B) The USA is sending troops to the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to break Iran's gatekeeping of the Persian Gulf and reduce Iran's power.
This is going to be a far longer war than the USA population expects
I have no doubt that closure of the straits of Hormuz had been war gamed, and the threat brought up before this started.
Robert Pape has this well defined, and is worth the time to read his work ( and it is worth listening to his view on this )
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Prof Robert Pape
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
escalationtrap.substack.com
From what I saw, the "expert's" solution was/is to kick the can down the road. In other words, no solution; revisit again in 10 years and put up with Iran's naughty behavior along the way. Screw that.
He may be have gotten a little to much into the academic exercise of what might be a solution that involves Israel but I think he lost sight of what the regime's ultimate goals are. That's the problem with academic philosophy: it's not a true science. It will NOT work. He trying to solve the wrong problem.
One of the things he's obviously right about is troops on the ground for any lengthy period of time.
Regime change is the only long term solution to the threat to the world that Iran is. Need to return to pre-1979 type of society where Iran plays nice and it's citizens thrive.
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Western Media doesn't show any of this to promote their agenda and ideology...which is all propaganda
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Its enshrined not in the Western African V00D00, but some where in Jerusalem
Quick...time for the jerusalema dance before the world BlOWs
Karoline's V00D00
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