Money & Economics

David L said:
Wow, had a friend bring this to my attention, he had someone at his work looking for a house, my friend mentioned the area where we use to live and even gave him our old address as a reference even though it is not for sale. My friend pointed out that our house was the second most expensive house on our old street of guessing 40+ homes and it is a one-story among two-story homes, ours was a 1900 sq ft the largest I think is 2600 which happened to be next to us and sold $7 less than ours about 9 months later. Why was ours more, guessing our pool, less than 10% have pools.

So why am I sharing this, Housing Market BS news...I went back to see what he was talking about. Since we sold almost 2 years ago, Aug. 2024, there has not been any drop or crash in the market as we have all heard from Fake News and so called Experts. Our house as all the houses in our old subdivision actually increased in value from two years ago. Now not by much, I checked all our neighbors houses, people we knew, houses that we were competing with when we sold, houses that we had our eyes one from when we bought back in 2012, so about a dozen and a half houses.

What I found is they all increased, again not my much, but $5-10k or more, none went down in value. So I did not stop there, I checked our daughters house who sold Jan. 2025, theirs went up $50k but is was a 4k sq ft house but in the same area of town. Next checked my wife's sister's house which they sold 2 years before ours, they have a pool, bigger yard but 5 year older home than ours but more property and in the Katy area, another HUGE area by Houston, their house also went up from when we sold ours, by $15k. So I did not stop their, checked two other family houses back closer to our old area, both also increased. We know this because we have all shared this kind of info and all the houses we have all bought for a few decades.

What is my point, I call BS...in looking at our old neighborhood today it is like a time warp, house prices are the same, slightly higher even than when we went through our sale in 2024. Definitely no decrease. I know this is peak selling season, right before summer, more listing, higher listing prices but again it is a mirror image of when we put our house up for sale two years ago. No 2008 crisis which recovered fairly quickly and prices continued to rise afterwards, again we were watching the market back then hoping to buy a second home at the low rates but was unable to at that time financially. Will there be another 2008, of course, but so far all those who have said so these last few years are eating crow.

I will end with this, I have already shared our granddaughter bought a house in Katy, 200 sq ft smaller than our old house, no pool yet paid more than what we sold our house for, it is her first house, she is now in her mid twenties so we did not rock the boat but praised her for her new home. Her job she has had for 4 years, avg. salary, under $100k a year, thinking maybe 80 now. Was approved for the mortgage. Yes it is sad houses are Way over priced, still, and no the 3% rates are in the past, think she got right under 6% but young people are still buying houses. Maybe the ones with a shotty job history or bad credit rating are not but that has always been the case. We are glad she broke from that stupid generation of hers that are not getting married and don't want to own a home. She is one of the smart ones...
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Fake post. Much like your Pork ribeyes..

Not every house in every market is decreasing. That didnt happen even in 2008. People will still buy houses for a host of reasons.
The trend is decreasing values in most major markets in the South and West

But: Houston area in general IS decreasing. Great yours didn't :rolleyes:

Houston​

The Houston housing market is currently experiencing a decline in home prices, with the average home value dropping to $265,062 as of April 30, 2026. This represents a 2.7% decrease over the past year. Homes in Houston typically go pending in around 35 days, indicating a relatively quick selling process. The median sale price of a home in Houston was $345K last month, down 2.8% since last year. The market is somewhat competitive, with homes receiving an average of 2 offers and selling in about 64 days. The median price per square foot in Houston is $179, up 0.6% since last year. Overall, the Houston housing market is showing signs of a cautiously favorable environment for buyers, with mortgage rates unlikely to drop back to historic lows.
https://www.zillow.com/home-values/39051/houston-tx/?msockid=115c73f7c21c6e3e271964abc3be6fcd


And I'll copy the post up the page aways answering the same question
============

All depends on location of course. As usual.

Generally, prices have cooled, there is a bigger number of sellers than buyers by a large margin overall. People who bought 7-10 years ago at 3% mortgage are trapped. They’re not lowering their price and can’t move into another home under 6.5%

We may not see a 2008 type housing crash, but prices will eventually have to come down.

Prices are coming down fastest in places where a huge number of people moved to in the past 5 years. The mass migration inflated prices. What goes up comes down.

Places with no city utilities and 100 miles from the grocery store where they buy $3.99 lb pork ribeyes won’t come down much if at all and will probably increase by 20-30% … outside of Houston :rolleyes:

Way more sellers than buyers which will drive prices down.

www.redfin.com

The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall

At no other point on record have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. Home prices will likely fall as a result.
www.redfin.com www.redfin.com
www.cbsnews.com

Home prices dropped in dozens of big U.S. cities this year. Here's where.

Cities in Florida and California, where home prices soared during the pandemic, saw some of the steepest declines in property values.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
www.realtor.com

The Housing Markets Seeing the Sharpest Home Price Declines

Home price growth is stalling across the U.S., but some parts of the South and West are getting hit harder.
www.realtor.com
 
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It simply won't stop.
It is Sunday night and the US 10Y Note Yield just casually hit 4.63%, the highest since February 2025.
We are now ~4 basis points ABOVE the high that prompted President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.

This puts the 10Y Note Yield up +70 basis points since the Iran War, with US mortgage rates now nearing 7.00%+.And, in a sudden turn of events, the odds of rate cuts have collapsed to 2% this year and US inflation is nearing 4%+.

The US bond market is collapsing in real-time.

 
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bigredfish said:
It simply won't stop.
It is Sunday night and the US 10Y Note Yield just casually hit 4.63%, the highest since February 2025.
We are now ~4 basis points ABOVE the high that prompted President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.

This puts the 10Y Note Yield up +70 basis points since the Iran War, with US mortgage rates now nearing 7.00%+.And, in a sudden turn of events, the odds of rate cuts have collapsed to 2% this year and US inflation is nearing 4%+.

The US bond market is collapsing in real-time.

Click to expand...


SO what is going to break at these levels ??

I thought the markets would have dropped .. but they're going to the moon
 
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mat200 said:
SO what is going to break at these levels ??

I thought the markets would have dropped .. but they're going to the moon
Click to expand...


Markets are completely detached from reality.
Whats happening there is a Gamma squeeze, a kind of largely automated out of control cycle (I understand maybe 75% of it)
It WILL come down and usually harshly, but not directly because of Bond prices. Yet.

As far as what happens with Bonds crashing (Price going down, Yields going up)
The cost of money increases across the boards.
Mortgages show it early, then ALL borrowing/credit, but the big thing is the US .Gov borrowing (printing) costs increase.
Now we happen to be $39 Trillion in debt and basically spend (print) $2 Trillion per year MORE than we have
That just got even more expensive

So if the interest on the debt is already 30% of every tax dollar, and it keeps increasing, you either have to:
A) Print more, which directly means = higher inflation
B) Spend Less (it wont be Defense they cut, it will be everything else. And only fools and the uneducated think we don't need those other services)
C) Default - Game Over 1929 style

All the while you have to offer higher Yields on Bonds to get people to buy them because they look more risky, ie risk premium - that the US Govt. will actually pay you at maturity

Bonds are what makes the entire machine go.

The Stock Market truly is just a casino, currently supported by 7-10 companies, those happen to be all AI focused and see no actual profit from it anytime soon.
Its a house of cards and unless propped up by .gov or other accounting tricks, will crash in epic fashion all on its own.
 
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Add to that the Boy King wants to increase Defense spending by 1/2 Trillion dollars from $1T to $1.5T and you're talking cuts to social programs the likes of which we've never seen before.

There is no easy way out now. Its all bad.
Its just a matter of how bad.

No its not all crashing next week. So for those who say " but gee it all must be fake news, my house is still worth the same" pat them on the head and say "bless your heart"
 
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The 10-year yield climbing back above the level that triggered Trump's tariff pause is the bond market's way of saying "we see your political maneuvering and raise you math"—unlike Twitter polls, yields don't care about your press releases.

 
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As long as there are Americans who still believe Trump is succeeding and that victory can be won through threats and war, he wields the power to keep plunging the United States into disaster. while the country heads straight toward complete ruin, many Americans remain oblivious.

 
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A thought on the Markets

Two things draw my attention that we are closer than you think to the Top

1- Gates Foundation liquidated ALL of their remaining Microsoft stock last week. GATES>>MICROSOFT>>SOLD IT ALL
2- Elon has moved up his IPO for whatever the new conglomerate is being called to 4 weeks from now

When you're close to a market Top, the Big Boys need suckers (er liquidity,) to buy what they're selling before it crashes, and sell it back to on the way down. They don't do IPO's at the Bottom. They speed up the offering

YOU are the Exit Liquidity
 
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bigredfish said:
Elon has moved up his IPO for whatever the new conglomerate is being called to 4 weeks from now

When you're close to a market Top, the Big Boys need suckers (er liquidity,) to buy what they're selling before it crashes. They don't do IPO's at the Bottom. They speed up the offering

YOU are the Exit Liquidity
Click to expand...

Who knows, but he really is shooting for the stars... notice the "For investors interested in the offering, SpaceX is reportedly exploring a larger-than-average allocation for retail investors"... that's very nice of him! :idk:


Screenshot 2026-05-17 232950.png



Screenshot 2026-05-17 232701.png
 
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Prediction, "Soft Barrels" have been used up .. oil price gonna go up
( "soft barrel" = slack in oil supply chain )


The “Soft Barrel” Phenomenon: Iran and Crude Oil Prices
Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing




In this video, industry veteran Troy W. Eckard explains the "Soft Barrel" phenomenon and its impact on global crude oil markets amidst geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Key takeaways include:

  • Defining "Soft Barrels": Eckard defines these as the excess supply of oil existing within the global supply chain—stored in pipelines, tank farms, refineries, and waterborne vessels between the wellhead and the end consumer (0:00-1:15).
  • The Impact of the Iranian Conflict: During a recent 75-day period marked by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, global markets faced a significant supply disruption of 12–14 million barrels per day. Eckard argues that this shortfall was masked because producers flooded the market with 1.5 to 2 billion "soft barrels" to keep prices artificially suppressed (1:15-2:46).
  • Market Fragility: With these excess inventories now largely depleted, Eckard warns that the global market is becoming increasingly vulnerable. He suggests that we are entering a phase where the lack of "soft barrels" will force prices to rise significantly to reflect true supply-demand realities (2:46-4:15).
  • Future Outlook: Eckard predicts that unless the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, the market could see price hikes of $25 to $50 per barrel between late May and the end of June as consumers compete for limited supply (4:15-4:46).
 
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