Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
The UK's 30Y Government Bond Yield surges to 5.85%, its highest level since March 1998.
Global bond markets are bracing for severe inflation.
Global bond markets are bracing for severe inflation.
The Trump administration is quietly signaling something the public still doesn’t fully understand:
They’re worried about the bond market.Very worried.
Behind the scenes, reports say Trump officials have been:
• privately engaging investors
• tweaking Treasury issuance strategy
• discussing ways to create more demand for U.S. debt
• trying to keep long-term yields from spiraling higher
Why?Because if Treasury yields keep rising, the entire economic story starts cracking.
Higher yields mean:
• higher mortgage rates
• higher car payments
• more expensive business debt
• exploding government interest costs
• weaker housing and credit markets
In other words:The “risk-free” foundation underneath the economy becomes unstable.
And here’s the contradiction nobody’s talking about:
Publicly, Trump keeps selling tariffs and deficit-heavy policies as economic strength.
Privately, his administration appears deeply concerned those same policies are helping drive the bond market stress they’re now trying to contain.
That’s the tell.
If things were truly under control, they wouldn’t be quietly managing Treasury demand behind the curtain.They wouldn’t be floating regulatory changes so banks absorb more government debt.They wouldn’t be trying to stop long-term yields from blowing out.
Because they understand something most Americans don’t yet:
If the bond market breaks, stocks are next.
And unlike a stock correction, bond stress hits EVERYTHING:
• housing
• jobs
• lending
• business investment
• government budgets
• consumer spending
The stock market is the casino people watch on TV.The bond market is the load-bearing wall holding the entire damn building up.
Receipts:
They’re worried about the bond market.Very worried.
Behind the scenes, reports say Trump officials have been:
• privately engaging investors
• tweaking Treasury issuance strategy
• discussing ways to create more demand for U.S. debt
• trying to keep long-term yields from spiraling higher
Why?Because if Treasury yields keep rising, the entire economic story starts cracking.
Higher yields mean:
• higher mortgage rates
• higher car payments
• more expensive business debt
• exploding government interest costs
• weaker housing and credit markets
In other words:The “risk-free” foundation underneath the economy becomes unstable.
And here’s the contradiction nobody’s talking about:
Publicly, Trump keeps selling tariffs and deficit-heavy policies as economic strength.
Privately, his administration appears deeply concerned those same policies are helping drive the bond market stress they’re now trying to contain.
That’s the tell.
If things were truly under control, they wouldn’t be quietly managing Treasury demand behind the curtain.They wouldn’t be floating regulatory changes so banks absorb more government debt.They wouldn’t be trying to stop long-term yields from blowing out.
Because they understand something most Americans don’t yet:
If the bond market breaks, stocks are next.
And unlike a stock correction, bond stress hits EVERYTHING:
• housing
• jobs
• lending
• business investment
• government budgets
• consumer spending
The stock market is the casino people watch on TV.The bond market is the load-bearing wall holding the entire damn building up.
Receipts:
What's all this talk about home prices crashing?
Home Prices Register Biggest Annual Increase in More Than a Year: Report
(No need to point out it's from one of the everything-DJT-does-is-wonderful rags.)
Home Prices Register Biggest Annual Increase in More Than a Year: Report
(No need to point out it's from one of the everything-DJT-does-is-wonderful rags.)
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Worse than the Great Depression - GREAT - MAKE AMERICA GREAT
No wonder OnlyFans took off like a storm
All depends on location of course. As usual.
Generally, prices have cooled, there is a bigger number of sellers than buyers by a large margin overall. People who bought 7-10 years ago at 3% mortgage are trapped. They’re not lowering their price and can’t move into another home under 6.5%
We may not see a 2008 type housing crash, but prices will eventually have to come down.
Prices are coming down fastest in places where a huge number of people moved to in the past 5 years. The mass migration inflated prices. What goes up comes down.
Places with no city utilities and 100 miles from the grocery store where they buy $3.99 lb pork ribeyes won’t come down much if at all and will probably increase by 20-30% … outside of Houston
Way more sellers than buyers which will drive prices down.
www.redfin.com
www.cbsnews.com
Generally, prices have cooled, there is a bigger number of sellers than buyers by a large margin overall. People who bought 7-10 years ago at 3% mortgage are trapped. They’re not lowering their price and can’t move into another home under 6.5%
We may not see a 2008 type housing crash, but prices will eventually have to come down.
Prices are coming down fastest in places where a huge number of people moved to in the past 5 years. The mass migration inflated prices. What goes up comes down.
Places with no city utilities and 100 miles from the grocery store where they buy $3.99 lb pork ribeyes won’t come down much if at all and will probably increase by 20-30% … outside of Houston
Way more sellers than buyers which will drive prices down.
The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall
At no other point on record have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. Home prices will likely fall as a result.
www.redfin.com
Home prices dropped in dozens of big U.S. cities this year. Here's where.
Cities in Florida and California, where home prices soared during the pandemic, saw some of the steepest declines in property values.
www.cbsnews.com
The Housing Markets Seeing the Sharpest Home Price Declines
Home price growth is stalling across the U.S., but some parts of the South and West are getting hit harder.
www.realtor.com
Full-time employment declined -424,000 in April, the biggest monthly decline since January and the 2nd-largest since May 2025.
Year-to-date, full-time job count has now dropped -963,000, to 134.3 million, the lowest since December 2024.
The number of full-time workers is also now below March 2023 levels.
As a result, the ratio of full-time employment to total employment is down to 82.6%, in-line with 2020 pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, part-time employment rose +123,000 in April, but remains 1.0 million below its all-time high of 28.4 million.
Year-to-date, full-time job count has now dropped -963,000, to 134.3 million, the lowest since December 2024.
The number of full-time workers is also now below March 2023 levels.
As a result, the ratio of full-time employment to total employment is down to 82.6%, in-line with 2020 pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, part-time employment rose +123,000 in April, but remains 1.0 million below its all-time high of 28.4 million.
Trump on saying he doesn't think about Americans' financial situation: "It's a perfect statement. I'll make it again. Everybody agrees."
He says he doesn't think about American's financial situation, becasue Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.
They didnt, don't, and would not anytime soon even if they wanted to.
This is called bullshit
He says he doesn't think about American's financial situation, becasue Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.
They didnt, don't, and would not anytime soon even if they wanted to.
This is called bullshit
What happens to all of the chip manufacturers valuations if China can (and will) provide chips for pennies on the dollar?
What happens when the realization hits that AI itself largely becomes a commodity?
=============
Trump just admitted China voluntarily walked away from Nvidia. Not because of sanctions. Not because of a ban. Because they don't need US chips anymore.
That's the nightmare Washington refused to say out loud. The entire strategy of chip sanctions was built on a bet that China could never close the gap. That bet failed. Billions in domestic R&D, years of pressure from US bans, and now China has its own alternatives.
Trump's words say it all: "They want to develop their own." That's not tough talk. That's resignation.The US no longer has a bargaining card. You can't threaten to cut someone off when they've already built their own supply. And once China starts supplying the rest of the world with cheaper chips, the entire architecture of American tech hegemony collapses.The main card is gone.
Now watch Washington panic.
What happens when the realization hits that AI itself largely becomes a commodity?
=============
Trump just admitted China voluntarily walked away from Nvidia. Not because of sanctions. Not because of a ban. Because they don't need US chips anymore.
That's the nightmare Washington refused to say out loud. The entire strategy of chip sanctions was built on a bet that China could never close the gap. That bet failed. Billions in domestic R&D, years of pressure from US bans, and now China has its own alternatives.
Trump's words say it all: "They want to develop their own." That's not tough talk. That's resignation.The US no longer has a bargaining card. You can't threaten to cut someone off when they've already built their own supply. And once China starts supplying the rest of the world with cheaper chips, the entire architecture of American tech hegemony collapses.The main card is gone.
Now watch Washington panic.
Corporations don't have their own money, they have consumer money. 100% of corporate taxes are paid by consumers. Increase corporate taxes and it just makes domestic business uncompetitive with other nations while you pay more for goods and services.