Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
The UK's 30Y Government Bond Yield surges to 5.85%, its highest level since March 1998.
Global bond markets are bracing for severe inflation.
Global bond markets are bracing for severe inflation.
The Trump administration is quietly signaling something the public still doesn’t fully understand:
They’re worried about the bond market.Very worried.
Behind the scenes, reports say Trump officials have been:
• privately engaging investors
• tweaking Treasury issuance strategy
• discussing ways to create more demand for U.S. debt
• trying to keep long-term yields from spiraling higher
Why?Because if Treasury yields keep rising, the entire economic story starts cracking.
Higher yields mean:
• higher mortgage rates
• higher car payments
• more expensive business debt
• exploding government interest costs
• weaker housing and credit markets
In other words:The “risk-free” foundation underneath the economy becomes unstable.
And here’s the contradiction nobody’s talking about:
Publicly, Trump keeps selling tariffs and deficit-heavy policies as economic strength.
Privately, his administration appears deeply concerned those same policies are helping drive the bond market stress they’re now trying to contain.
That’s the tell.
If things were truly under control, they wouldn’t be quietly managing Treasury demand behind the curtain.They wouldn’t be floating regulatory changes so banks absorb more government debt.They wouldn’t be trying to stop long-term yields from blowing out.
Because they understand something most Americans don’t yet:
If the bond market breaks, stocks are next.
And unlike a stock correction, bond stress hits EVERYTHING:
• housing
• jobs
• lending
• business investment
• government budgets
• consumer spending
The stock market is the casino people watch on TV.The bond market is the load-bearing wall holding the entire damn building up.
Receipts:
They’re worried about the bond market.Very worried.
Behind the scenes, reports say Trump officials have been:
• privately engaging investors
• tweaking Treasury issuance strategy
• discussing ways to create more demand for U.S. debt
• trying to keep long-term yields from spiraling higher
Why?Because if Treasury yields keep rising, the entire economic story starts cracking.
Higher yields mean:
• higher mortgage rates
• higher car payments
• more expensive business debt
• exploding government interest costs
• weaker housing and credit markets
In other words:The “risk-free” foundation underneath the economy becomes unstable.
And here’s the contradiction nobody’s talking about:
Publicly, Trump keeps selling tariffs and deficit-heavy policies as economic strength.
Privately, his administration appears deeply concerned those same policies are helping drive the bond market stress they’re now trying to contain.
That’s the tell.
If things were truly under control, they wouldn’t be quietly managing Treasury demand behind the curtain.They wouldn’t be floating regulatory changes so banks absorb more government debt.They wouldn’t be trying to stop long-term yields from blowing out.
Because they understand something most Americans don’t yet:
If the bond market breaks, stocks are next.
And unlike a stock correction, bond stress hits EVERYTHING:
• housing
• jobs
• lending
• business investment
• government budgets
• consumer spending
The stock market is the casino people watch on TV.The bond market is the load-bearing wall holding the entire damn building up.
Receipts:
What's all this talk about home prices crashing?
Home Prices Register Biggest Annual Increase in More Than a Year: Report
(No need to point out it's from one of the everything-DJT-does-is-wonderful rags.)
Home Prices Register Biggest Annual Increase in More Than a Year: Report
(No need to point out it's from one of the everything-DJT-does-is-wonderful rags.)
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
Worse than the Great Depression - GREAT - MAKE AMERICA GREAT
No wonder OnlyFans took off like a storm
All depends on location of course. As usual.
Generally, prices have cooled, there is a bigger number of sellers than buyers by a large margin overall. People who bought 7-10 years ago at 3% mortgage are trapped. They’re not lowering their price and can’t move into another home under 6.5%
We may not see a 2008 type housing crash, but prices will eventually have to come down.
Prices are coming down fastest in places where a huge number of people moved to in the past 5 years. The mass migration inflated prices. What goes up comes down.
Places with no city utilities and 100 miles from the grocery store where they buy $3.99 lb pork ribeyes won’t come down much if at all and will probably increase by 20-30% … outside of Houston
Way more sellers than buyers which will drive prices down.
www.redfin.com
www.cbsnews.com
Generally, prices have cooled, there is a bigger number of sellers than buyers by a large margin overall. People who bought 7-10 years ago at 3% mortgage are trapped. They’re not lowering their price and can’t move into another home under 6.5%
We may not see a 2008 type housing crash, but prices will eventually have to come down.
Prices are coming down fastest in places where a huge number of people moved to in the past 5 years. The mass migration inflated prices. What goes up comes down.
Places with no city utilities and 100 miles from the grocery store where they buy $3.99 lb pork ribeyes won’t come down much if at all and will probably increase by 20-30% … outside of Houston
Way more sellers than buyers which will drive prices down.
The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall
At no other point on record have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. Home prices will likely fall as a result.
www.redfin.com
Home prices dropped in dozens of big U.S. cities this year. Here's where.
Cities in Florida and California, where home prices soared during the pandemic, saw some of the steepest declines in property values.
www.cbsnews.com
The Housing Markets Seeing the Sharpest Home Price Declines
Home price growth is stalling across the U.S., but some parts of the South and West are getting hit harder.
www.realtor.com
Full-time employment declined -424,000 in April, the biggest monthly decline since January and the 2nd-largest since May 2025.
Year-to-date, full-time job count has now dropped -963,000, to 134.3 million, the lowest since December 2024.
The number of full-time workers is also now below March 2023 levels.
As a result, the ratio of full-time employment to total employment is down to 82.6%, in-line with 2020 pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, part-time employment rose +123,000 in April, but remains 1.0 million below its all-time high of 28.4 million.
Year-to-date, full-time job count has now dropped -963,000, to 134.3 million, the lowest since December 2024.
The number of full-time workers is also now below March 2023 levels.
As a result, the ratio of full-time employment to total employment is down to 82.6%, in-line with 2020 pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, part-time employment rose +123,000 in April, but remains 1.0 million below its all-time high of 28.4 million.
Trump on saying he doesn't think about Americans' financial situation: "It's a perfect statement. I'll make it again. Everybody agrees."
He says he doesn't think about American's financial situation, becasue Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.
They didnt, don't, and would not anytime soon even if they wanted to.
This is called bullshit
He says he doesn't think about American's financial situation, becasue Iran can't have a nuclear weapon.
They didnt, don't, and would not anytime soon even if they wanted to.
This is called bullshit
What happens to all of the chip manufacturers valuations if China can (and will) provide chips for pennies on the dollar?
What happens when the realization hits that AI itself largely becomes a commodity?
=============
Trump just admitted China voluntarily walked away from Nvidia. Not because of sanctions. Not because of a ban. Because they don't need US chips anymore.
That's the nightmare Washington refused to say out loud. The entire strategy of chip sanctions was built on a bet that China could never close the gap. That bet failed. Billions in domestic R&D, years of pressure from US bans, and now China has its own alternatives.
Trump's words say it all: "They want to develop their own." That's not tough talk. That's resignation.The US no longer has a bargaining card. You can't threaten to cut someone off when they've already built their own supply. And once China starts supplying the rest of the world with cheaper chips, the entire architecture of American tech hegemony collapses.The main card is gone.
Now watch Washington panic.
What happens when the realization hits that AI itself largely becomes a commodity?
=============
Trump just admitted China voluntarily walked away from Nvidia. Not because of sanctions. Not because of a ban. Because they don't need US chips anymore.
That's the nightmare Washington refused to say out loud. The entire strategy of chip sanctions was built on a bet that China could never close the gap. That bet failed. Billions in domestic R&D, years of pressure from US bans, and now China has its own alternatives.
Trump's words say it all: "They want to develop their own." That's not tough talk. That's resignation.The US no longer has a bargaining card. You can't threaten to cut someone off when they've already built their own supply. And once China starts supplying the rest of the world with cheaper chips, the entire architecture of American tech hegemony collapses.The main card is gone.
Now watch Washington panic.
Corporations don't have their own money, they have consumer money. 100% of corporate taxes are paid by consumers. Increase corporate taxes and it just makes domestic business uncompetitive with other nations while you pay more for goods and services.
True but only to a point. I’m a capitalist, I believe in free markets. In a perfect world that’s true.
But raising taxes (or more appropriately cutting out loopholes designed to boost profits for corporations) takes money out of the pockets of wealthy corp owners. Companies still have to compete, for now, which means they have to price their product reasonably or risk losing market share. ie: less profit margin. Not NO profit margin.
Take away competition or incentive to compete, like when government chooses winners, and you find yourself in a very bad place as a consumer. This is where I think the danger is today.
I get both sides of the argument, it’s been around for thousands of years.. I just think we’ve gone too far to the extreme.
Wow, had a friend bring this to my attention, he had someone at his work looking for a house, my friend mentioned the area where we use to live and even gave him our old address as a reference even though it is not for sale. My friend pointed out that our house was the second most expensive house on our old street of guessing 40+ homes and it is a one-story among two-story homes, ours was a 1900 sq ft the largest I think is 2600 which happened to be next to us and sold $7 less than ours about 9 months later. Why was ours more, guessing our pool, less than 10% have pools.
So why am I sharing this, Housing Market BS news...I went back to see what he was talking about. Since we sold almost 2 years ago, Aug. 2024, there has not been any drop or crash in the market as we have all heard from Fake News and so called Experts. Our house as all the houses in our old subdivision actually increased in value from two years ago. Now not by much, I checked all our neighbors houses, people we knew, houses that we were competing with when we sold, houses that we had our eyes one from when we bought back in 2012, so about a dozen and a half houses.
What I found is they all increased, again not my much, but $5-10k or more, none went down in value. So I did not stop there, I checked our daughters house who sold Jan. 2025, theirs went up $50k but is was a 4k sq ft house but in the same area of town. Next checked my wife's sister's house which they sold 2 years before ours, they have a pool, bigger yard but 5 year older home than ours but more property and in the Katy area, another HUGE area by Houston, their house also went up from when we sold ours, by $15k. So I did not stop their, checked two other family houses back closer to our old area, both also increased. We know this because we have all shared this kind of info and all the houses we have all bought for a few decades.
What is my point, I call BS...in looking at our old neighborhood today it is like a time warp, house prices are the same, slightly higher even than when we went through our sale in 2024. Definitely no decrease. I know this is peak selling season, right before summer, more listing, higher listing prices but again it is a mirror image of when we put our house up for sale two years ago. No 2008 crisis which recovered fairly quickly and prices continued to rise afterwards, again we were watching the market back then hoping to buy a second home at the low rates but was unable to at that time financially. Will there be another 2008, of course, but so far all those who have said so these last few years are eating crow.
I will end with this, I have already shared our granddaughter bought a house in Katy, 200 sq ft smaller than our old house, no pool yet paid more than what we sold our house for, it is her first house, she is now in her mid twenties so we did not rock the boat but praised her for her new home. Her job she has had for 4 years, avg. salary, under $100k a year, thinking maybe 80 now. Was approved for the mortgage. Yes it is sad houses are Way over priced, still, and no the 3% rates are in the past, think she got right under 6% but young people are still buying houses. Maybe the ones with a shotty job history or bad credit rating are not but that has always been the case. We are glad she broke from that stupid generation of hers that are not getting married and don't want to own a home. She is one of the smart ones...
So why am I sharing this, Housing Market BS news...I went back to see what he was talking about. Since we sold almost 2 years ago, Aug. 2024, there has not been any drop or crash in the market as we have all heard from Fake News and so called Experts. Our house as all the houses in our old subdivision actually increased in value from two years ago. Now not by much, I checked all our neighbors houses, people we knew, houses that we were competing with when we sold, houses that we had our eyes one from when we bought back in 2012, so about a dozen and a half houses.
What I found is they all increased, again not my much, but $5-10k or more, none went down in value. So I did not stop there, I checked our daughters house who sold Jan. 2025, theirs went up $50k but is was a 4k sq ft house but in the same area of town. Next checked my wife's sister's house which they sold 2 years before ours, they have a pool, bigger yard but 5 year older home than ours but more property and in the Katy area, another HUGE area by Houston, their house also went up from when we sold ours, by $15k. So I did not stop their, checked two other family houses back closer to our old area, both also increased. We know this because we have all shared this kind of info and all the houses we have all bought for a few decades.
What is my point, I call BS...in looking at our old neighborhood today it is like a time warp, house prices are the same, slightly higher even than when we went through our sale in 2024. Definitely no decrease. I know this is peak selling season, right before summer, more listing, higher listing prices but again it is a mirror image of when we put our house up for sale two years ago. No 2008 crisis which recovered fairly quickly and prices continued to rise afterwards, again we were watching the market back then hoping to buy a second home at the low rates but was unable to at that time financially. Will there be another 2008, of course, but so far all those who have said so these last few years are eating crow.
I will end with this, I have already shared our granddaughter bought a house in Katy, 200 sq ft smaller than our old house, no pool yet paid more than what we sold our house for, it is her first house, she is now in her mid twenties so we did not rock the boat but praised her for her new home. Her job she has had for 4 years, avg. salary, under $100k a year, thinking maybe 80 now. Was approved for the mortgage. Yes it is sad houses are Way over priced, still, and no the 3% rates are in the past, think she got right under 6% but young people are still buying houses. Maybe the ones with a shotty job history or bad credit rating are not but that has always been the case. We are glad she broke from that stupid generation of hers that are not getting married and don't want to own a home. She is one of the smart ones...
Chokolinho
Getting comfortable
