Why Oil Isn’t Going Back to $60 Anytime Soon
Hedgeye
AI Summary :
Energy analyst Fernando Valle argues that oil prices are unlikely to return to $60 Brent this year due to significant, long-lasting damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, even if geopolitical tensions subside.
Key Takeaways:
Infrastructure Damage: (0:29) The damage to key energy locations is severe. Qatar Energy estimates it will take 3 to 5 years to rebuild LG trains representing 17% of their capacity (0:46-0:53).
Production Disruptions: (1:05) Iraq has experienced backups at Basra, affecting over 4 million barrels a day of production, which will take weeks or months to normalize (1:06-1:20). Similar shutdowns have occurred in the UAE and Kuwait (1:28-1:39).
Supply Chain Issues: (1:46) Tanker traffic is disrupted, and exports of critical crop nutrients like potash and sulfur are delayed, which could impact global crop yields for the next 6 to 12 months (1:50-2:15).
Price Outlook: (2:20) While oil might not stay above $100 if peace is reached, returning to $60 is considered impossible for this year (2:55-3:05).
Early-morning futures markets are typically less liquid, which can make short bursts of buying and selling more noticeable than during regular trading hours. Still, the trades raised some eyebrows because whoever purchased a large amount of stock futures and sold or shorted crude futures at that moment made a lot of money just minutes later.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CME Group didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.