Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

 
mat200 said:
Still wondering why Israel abandoned the SLA and the related buffer territory controlled in Southern Lebanon

"The South Lebanon Army (SLA), also known as the Lahad Army or De Facto Forces, was an Israeli-backed Lebanese militia that operated from October 1977 until its dissolution in May 2000. Founded by Major Saad Haddad after splitting from the Army of Free Lebanon, the group evolved into a quasi-military force controlling the Israeli-occupied "security zone" in southern Lebanon, primarily to defend Christian towns and serve as a buffer against the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and later Hezbollah. "



This video features a conversation between host Pyotr Kurzin and guest David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), regarding the escalating conflict in Lebanon and the broader implications of the current standoff between the United States, Iran, and Israel.

Key takeaways include:

  • Israel's Strategy in Lebanon: David Daoud explains that Israel is currently focused on degrading Hezbollah's military assets through aerial operations and targeted strikes, with a potential long-term plan to establish a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon (1:36 - 1:44, 31:18 - 32:00).
  • The "Unification of Fronts": Iran is attempting to link the Lebanon front with the broader regional conflict to gain leverage, while Israel largely treats the fronts as symbiotic but separate (11:42 - 12:26).
  • The Challenge of Decapitation: The guest argues that the current strategy of targeted killings (decapitation) has not achieved optimal results in Iran or Hezbollah, as both organizations are designed to survive the loss of specific leadership (12:28 - 13:15).
  • The Role of the US: Daoud contends that while preventing Iran from achieving regional dominance is a primary US interest, the United States should not get directly involved militarily. Instead, he argues, the US should rely on its partnership with Israel to manage these security threats (41:15 - 41:32).
  • The Communication Gap: A recurring theme is the criticism of the Trump administration's communication strategy, as the guest notes that the administration has failed to adequately explain to the American public why this conflict is necessary or how Hezbollah and Iran pose a direct, long-term threat to the United States (48:31 - 49:05).

Apr 9, 2026 #iran #israel #war
Trump's fragile ceasefire with Iran may be holding, but it looks increasingly under threat as Netanyahu and Israel escalate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The stakes are only getting higher as the whole Middle East remains at risk.

Guest: David Daoud is a senior fellow at FDD focused on Lebanon and Hezbollah. He previously worked as a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, director of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and a research analyst at FDD.

Click to expand...


Israel’s strategy in Lebanon is to flatten it like Gaza and own it
The rest is just providing cover
 
The ones on the regime payroll and those under threat of death did not cheer.

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So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz.
Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May.
Reports are circulating that countries are beginning to ration fuel. So what's next?

 
Anyone telling you that Israel is just chasing Hezbollah in Lebanon might just be friendly with Mossad or paid for their opinion ;)

The intent is to completely destroy Lebanon just like they did Gaza and if it takes killing another couple of hundred Thousand civilians, they won;t even bat an eye

Israel is a disgusting degenerate society

 
Europe will be fine without the US

We've become the paper tiger

================


MAGA thinks Europe can't defend itself without America. Here's what they don't know.


1. France and Britain have 515 nuclear warheads and 8 nuclear missile submarines.

2. European defence spending hit €481 billion this year. That's more than Russia and China spend combined. The EU's ReArm Europe plan is mobilising another €800 billion.

3. European countries have over 1.7 million active troops. Russia has 1.3 million.

4. EU and UK air forces fly over 1,400 combat aircraft. Their navies have five aircraft carriers, over 60 submarines, more than 120 frigates and destroyers.

5. Europe has over 6,000 artillery pieces and that's before the biggest rearmament wave since the Cold War. Poland alone is adding 212 new howitzers.

6. The British SAS invented modern special forces. The US copied them to build Delta Force. From France's Foreign Legion to Poland's GROM, Europe's elite units are among the deadliest on earth.

7. Europe already has joint military commands ready to fight. The UK leads a 10-nation rapid reaction force across Northern Europe and the Arctic. Finland alone can mobilise 900,000 trained reservists all prepared to fight in arctic conditions.

8. Europe has its own satellite navigation (Galileo), its own defence programme (75 active projects) and is building its own rapid deployment force.

The "helpless Europe" story was never about defence.

It was about keeping Europe dependent and buying American weapons, relying on American intelligence, following American foreign policy.

Thanks to Trump, that now ends.


 
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The gaslighting is so frustrating ..



This US-Iran Ceasefire Makes No Sense
Preston Stewart



In this video, Preston Stewart discusses the current status of the US-Iran ceasefire, arguing that it remains highly confusing and fragile because all parties seem to be operating under different understandings of what was actually agreed upon.

Key takeaways from the video:

  • Conflicting Terms: There is significant confusion regarding which "10-point plan" is being used as a framework, with Iran, the US, and other regional actors interpreting the terms in contradictory ways (1:25-2:24).
  • The Strait of Hormuz: Despite the ceasefire being touted as a move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway remains largely closed to normal traffic, with reports suggesting Iran is still exerting strict control (6:36-8:02).
  • Lebanon Conflict: The status of the fighting in Lebanon is a major point of contention, with initial statements including it in the ceasefire, while the US and Israel have publicly denied its inclusion, leading to ongoing military strikes (4:39-6:35).
  • Public Reception: The video critiques recent mainstream media assessments—specifically a Fox News op-ed—that framed the deal as a major victory, highlighting that even audience members sympathetic to the administration are questioning the lack of tangible results, such as the continued enrichment of uranium and the closed strait (0:50-1:13, 12:18-13:20).
Stewart concludes that it is currently premature to label the situation either a strategic victory or a defeat, as the ceasefire is hanging by a thread and the specific terms remain unclear (9:42-10:12).
 
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It’s clearly a defeat. The US went into this thinking it was going to be a cakewalk. It was anything but.

Not a single strategic goal (that shifts daily) has been achieved.
 
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Former CENTCOM Commander's Deep Intel on Ending the Iran War
Ward Carroll

Apr 8, 2026
Retired U.S. Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, who was in charge of Central Command from 2019 until 2022, details his experiences in dealing with the Iranian threat and his recommendations for ending Operation Epic Fury.

General McKenzie details how he oversaw the raid in Syria that resulted in the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the armed drone strike that killed Iranian Republican Guard General Qassim Soleimani and what those actions did - both intended and unintended - throughout the Middle East and eventually led to Operation Epic Fury.




This video features an in-depth interview with retired U.S. Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, who served as the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) from 2019 to 2022. He provides historical context on tensions with Iran and discusses his recent book, The Melting Point.

Key Topics Covered:​

  • 2019 Tensions with Iran: General McKenzie details the maximum pressure campaign and the escalation that followed the downing of a U.S. RQ-4 drone (2:06 - 7:11). He explains the decision-making process behind the potential strikes that were ultimately called off by the president.
  • The Raid on Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: A detailed account of the October 2019 mission to capture or kill the ISIS leader in western Syria (8:12 - 19:32). McKenzie emphasizes the importance of avoiding civilian casualties (specifically children) and the necessity of obtaining DNA evidence, which led to the selection of a high-risk special operations raid over an airstrike.
  • The Strike on Qassim Soleimani: An explanation of the strategic reasoning behind the January 2020 strike in Baghdad (22:22 - 29:16). McKenzie describes Soleimani as a central figure in Iranian regional aggression and explains how his removal disrupted Iranian command and control.
  • Operation Epic Fury and Current Strategy: The discussion touches on the ongoing Operation Epic Fury (33:42 - 45:30), where McKenzie analyzes the military campaign, the role of Israel, and the importance of securing the Strait of Hormuz. He discusses the strategic value of potential locations like Carg Island for future negotiations.
Throughout the conversation, McKenzie reflects on the challenges of theater command, the nature of Sunni-Shia dynamics in the region, and the evolution of military tactics over the last several years.
 
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