Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,339
- 30,759
This is good ..
“Many Will Die:” Military Expert Warns of Iran Escalation Trap | Amanpour and Company
Amanpour and Company
Mar 25, 2026 #amanpourpbs
Is America's war in Iran headed toward an escalation trap? Robert Pape, a professor of political science and an expert on global security, argues that the decapitation of Iran's leadership failed to break the regime, while upping the pressure for more force -- including raising the specter of a ground war. Pape joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the difference between initial tactical success and long-term strategic success.
Iran’s reported missile strike reaching toward Diego Garcia marks a sharp shift in this war’s trajectory.
This is not just another exchange.
It is a signal that the conflict is moving along a predictable—but dangerous—path I call the Escalation Trap.
The Escalation Trap unfolds in three stages.
Stage 1: Limited force to control the conflict.
A state launches precise strikes to degrade capabilities, signal resolve, or compel change—believing escalation can be contained.
Stage 2: Horizontal escalation.
The opponent does not collapse. It adapts—expanding the battlefield, targeting partners, and raising costs in new domains. What begins as a localized conflict spreads geographically and economically.
Stage 3: Forced expansion of the war.
The initiating side faces a choice: accept failure or escalate further—often through ground operations or direct control of territory and critical assets. This is the point where wars become far more costly and far harder to end.
We are now approaching this third stage.
..
escalationtrap.substack.com
“Many Will Die:” Military Expert Warns of Iran Escalation Trap | Amanpour and Company
Amanpour and Company
Mar 25, 2026 #amanpourpbs
Is America's war in Iran headed toward an escalation trap? Robert Pape, a professor of political science and an expert on global security, argues that the decapitation of Iran's leadership failed to break the regime, while upping the pressure for more force -- including raising the specter of a ground war. Pape joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the difference between initial tactical success and long-term strategic success.
Iran’s reported missile strike reaching toward Diego Garcia marks a sharp shift in this war’s trajectory.
This is not just another exchange.
It is a signal that the conflict is moving along a predictable—but dangerous—path I call the Escalation Trap.
The Escalation Trap unfolds in three stages.
Stage 1: Limited force to control the conflict.
A state launches precise strikes to degrade capabilities, signal resolve, or compel change—believing escalation can be contained.
Stage 2: Horizontal escalation.
The opponent does not collapse. It adapts—expanding the battlefield, targeting partners, and raising costs in new domains. What begins as a localized conflict spreads geographically and economically.
Stage 3: Forced expansion of the war.
The initiating side faces a choice: accept failure or escalate further—often through ground operations or direct control of territory and critical assets. This is the point where wars become far more costly and far harder to end.
We are now approaching this third stage.
..
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
escalationtrap.substack.com
I think someone gave Trump the password to the X account and he's trying to figure out how to use his phone?
Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC that the Iran war's economic damage will outlast the conflict itself, warning that even a resolution tomorrow wouldn't quickly unwind the infrastructure damage and energy disruption already done. Goldman Sachs separately raised its US recession probability to 30% this week, with Brent crude above $100, February payrolls down 92,000, unemployment at 4.5%, and core PCE running at 3.1%.
Oceanslider
Known around here
Oil was $100+ for 3.5 years under President Obummer and people are now crying about the past 3.5 weeks.
Can't argue with that... definitely a better investment than the CHUMP meme coin... LOL
It’s Not Obama’s Fault That Crude Oil Prices Have Increased
Is President Obama responsible for the spiraling price of gasoline? Republicans say yes, but the facts say no.
Jimmyjames
Pulling my weight
Maybe it’s the new digital TrumpCoin….the future of crypto…. Or perhaps she is referring to the Trump Phone that we all have of course been eagerly awaiting…. It is possible that she may have been referencing the latest edition of Trumpy Bear? Our most favorite and highly prized and snuggle-able plush possession?
Oceanslider
Known around here
Is there a second Valero fire? This post says it's currently ablaze on 3/25, AP says it was put out on 3/24.
" An oil refinery fire near the Texas coast was put out Tuesday ...."
Fire out and shelter-in-place order is lifted after oil refinery explosion near Texas coast
Additionally the post says "The Valero energy refinery in the U.S. .....". According to Valero there are actually 12 of them.
Our Locations
But I suppose everything else the post says is correct
.
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,339
- 30,759
Thought about this for a bit .. Trump should be sending in troops to open up the strait of Hormuz
Not close to over, going to see economic hurt globally.
Not close to over, going to see economic hurt globally.
This is good ..
“Many Will Die:” Military Expert Warns of Iran Escalation Trap | Amanpour and Company
Amanpour and Company
Mar 25, 2026 #amanpourpbs
Is America's war in Iran headed toward an escalation trap? Robert Pape, a professor of political science and an expert on global security, argues that the decapitation of Iran's leadership failed to break the regime, while upping the pressure for more force -- including raising the specter of a ground war. Pape joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss the difference between initial tactical success and long-term strategic success.
Iran’s reported missile strike reaching toward Diego Garcia marks a sharp shift in this war’s trajectory.
This is not just another exchange.
It is a signal that the conflict is moving along a predictable—but dangerous—path I call the Escalation Trap.
The Escalation Trap unfolds in three stages.
Stage 1: Limited force to control the conflict.
A state launches precise strikes to degrade capabilities, signal resolve, or compel change—believing escalation can be contained.
Stage 2: Horizontal escalation.
The opponent does not collapse. It adapts—expanding the battlefield, targeting partners, and raising costs in new domains. What begins as a localized conflict spreads geographically and economically.
Stage 3: Forced expansion of the war.
The initiating side faces a choice: accept failure or escalate further—often through ground operations or direct control of territory and critical assets. This is the point where wars become far more costly and far harder to end.
We are now approaching this third stage.
..
The Escalation Trap Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Iran's Latest Surprise
Your statement just proves mindless TDS is not a real thing... as if that's not already obvious/common sense... here's what your "non-mindless TDS guy" says around 6:15 in the video...
"We are being led by some of the most incompetent & corrupt & amoral people who have ever been in public life in America. Now, so, these are just cartoon characters & grifters & social media stars & moral lunatics in the second Trump administration, inspiring no confidence whatsoever from Trump on down."
Brutal... and yet you don't accuse him of being infected with TDS. Why? Because you agree with the rest of what the "non-mindless TDS guy" says?
IMHO, declaring TDS is a coping mechanism used by those who don't want to hear something that doesn't fit their existing beliefs/narrative/outlook, even if they can acknowledge and accept this "alleged" reality of the Trump administration.
Or maybe I'm wrong and it's just my TDS flaring up.
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Oceanslider
Known around here
Your statement just proves mindless TDS is not a real thing... as if that's not already obvious/common sense... here's what your "non-mindless TDS guy" says around 6:15 in the video...
"We are being led by some of the most incompetent & corrupt & amoral people who have ever been in public life in America. Now, so, these are just cartoon characters & grifters & social media stars & moral lunatics in the second Trump administration, inspiring no confidence whatsoever from Trump on down."
Brutal... and yet you don't accuse him of being infected with TDS. Why? Because you agree with the rest of what the "non-mindless TDS guy" says?
IMHO, declaring TDS is a coping mechanism used by those who don't want to hear something that doesn't fit their existing beliefs/narrative/outlook, even if they can acknowledge and accept this "alleged" reality of the Trump administration.
Or maybe I'm wrong and it's just my TDS flaring up.
Yes Sam Harris, a Kamala supporter, saying that she would bring back normalcy, has a full on case of TDSYour statement just proves mindless TDS is not a real thing... as if that's not already obvious/common sense... here's what your "non-mindless TDS guy" says around 6:15 in the video...
"We are being led by some of the most incompetent & corrupt & amoral people who have ever been in public life in America. Now, so, these are just cartoon characters & grifters & social media stars & moral lunatics in the second Trump administration, inspiring no confidence whatsoever from Trump on down."
Brutal... and yet you don't accuse him of being infected with TDS. Why? Because you agree with the rest of what the "non-mindless TDS guy" says?
IMHO, declaring TDS is a coping mechanism used by those who don't want to hear something that doesn't fit their existing beliefs/narrative/outlook, even if they can acknowledge and accept this "alleged" reality of the Trump administration.
Or maybe I'm wrong and it's just my TDS flaring up.
Last edited:
Oceanslider
Known around here