Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

Heavy market manipulation.

Better odds at a real casino. Once Trump kills the markets, well, your 401k will be worth about the price if a Big Mac

 
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bigredfish said:
Heavy market manipulation.

Better odds at a real casino. Once Trump kills the markets, well, your 401k will be worth about the price if a Big Mac

Click to expand...


Futures Market and Current Physical Crude market very different.

Current Physical Crude supply is in a shortage due to the war and shutting down the Straight of Hormuz

Futures Market predicts that issue gets resolved and oil starts to flow again from the Gulf ..
 
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mat200 said:
Futures Market and Current Physical Crude market very different.

Current Physical Crude supply is in a shortage due to the war and shutting down the Straight of Hormuz

Futures Market predicts that issue gets resolved and oil starts to flow again from the Gulf ..
Click to expand...

Well aware

Its paper oil, but its also effecting other asset classes.

At some point delivery decides the price, but currently there is no market price discovery.

Real oil however hit $155 today on spot market

You can't manipulate the markets to the extent they are, not just oil, and expect them to remain orderly and just go back to "normal" once the war is over.
If the US can move markets to the extent they are, you'll start seeing more action take place on other non-US exchanges.

The whole isolationist "we don't need anybody else" fallacy is going to bite hard in the future.
 
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mat200 said:
Futures Market and Current Physical Crude market very different.

Current Physical Crude supply is in a shortage due to the war and shutting down the Straight of Hormuz

Futures Market predicts that issue gets resolved and oil starts to flow again from the Gulf ..
Click to expand...

Oh, and I;m seeing estimates of 6-18 months on restoring refining and other various processes. Its no longer just about the Straight
 
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And as this guy says:


"All that happened is that Pakistan and Trump conned Iranians for a 15% drop in paper Oil and a short squeeze stock rally that buys Trump some polls relief.
But it doesn't matter for underlying energy crisis as ships are still not crossing."

 
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mat200 said:
Futures Market and Current Physical Crude market very different.

Current Physical Crude supply is in a shortage due to the war and shutting down the Straight of Hormuz

Futures Market predicts that issue gets resolved and oil starts to flow again from the Gulf ..
Click to expand...


Its the little things

 
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The audacity of Trump and his cult is beyond anything I could have ever thought up.

He truly thinks of himself as some benevolent Dictator.

Our country is going off the rails and so many are ignorant of whats going on.

 
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Oh hell no to a toll both.

 
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bigredfish said:
Heavy market manipulation.

Better odds at a real casino. Once Trump kills the markets, well, your 401k will be worth about the price if a Big Mac

Click to expand...

Only for the dummies who left their 401k sitting in over valved stocks. Easy come, easy go.
 
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mat200 said:
some great youtubers are doing a far better job covering this than the mainstream media



Iran Just Took Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Preston Stewart
Apr 8, 2026

As it sits now, this isn't good for the United States
So we might have a ceasefire but it's chaotic keeping up with all the nuance here. Entirely possible this still falls apart but for now it looks like the next two weeks are to be spent finalizing an agreement. I'm hesitant to provide much insight on the agreement right now as both sides seem to be contradicting themselves regularly.

This video, recorded on April 8, 2026, analyzes the chaotic situation surrounding a recently announced ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Preston Stewart outlines the following key points:




The Ceasefire Chaos:

  • Contradictory Narratives: Both the U.S. and Iran are claiming "overwhelming victory" while providing conflicting terms regarding the ceasefire (0:18-0:25).
  • Ongoing Conflict: Despite the announcement, reports indicate continued Iranian attacks on regional targets, including desalination plants in Kuwait (0:36-0:40, 5:28-5:39).
  • U.S.-Israel Friction: There are indications that the U.S. did not coordinate the ceasefire with Israel, which continued its military operations against Iran after the announcement (0:28-0:31, 5:43-6:11).
The Strait of Hormuz:

  • Control Shift: The video argues that Iran has effectively gained control of the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ships to obtain permission to transit or risk destruction (6:37-6:55).
  • Toll System: There is reporting that Iran plans to collect tolls in cryptocurrency. President Trump has suggested the possibility of a "joint venture" between the U.S. and Iran to manage these tolls, which the creator notes would provide massive revenue to the Iranian regime (6:56-8:22).
Negotiation Stance:

  • Shifting Proposals: The U.S. government initially pointed to an Iranian 10-point proposal as a "workable basis" for negotiation, but later pivoted back to a U.S. 15-point plan (3:23-3:40, 4:54-5:06).
  • Maximalist Demands: The Iranian 10-point plan includes demands such as the removal of all sanctions, annulment of international resolutions, and the right to enrich uranium—demands that the creator describes as a "disaster" for U.S. objectives (8:53-10:40).
Click to expand...



One little problem:

There is no "ceasefire" except in media advertising/proaganda.
EVERYONE over there is shooting and has been since minutes after the "ceasefire" announcement,

The "ceasefire is a farce to stall the pace so that Trump and the monster from Israel can reload.
 
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