More and more, we're seeing this progression:
1. Trump does something stupid.
2. Trump lies about what he did or why he did it.
3. Trump tries to cover up his stupidity.
4. Trump gets humiliated and America is worse off.
5. Trump doubles down defiantly and his polling tanks further.
You can see that progression in the more minor fiasco of the Reflecting Pool. Trump hired an incompetent crony on a no-bid contract - there's the stupidity. When the stupidity led to problems, he lied about why. He then tried to cover up the truth (his stupidity) by arresting someone. The case against the person Trump had arrested fell apart, exposing the stupidity. Trump is not the least bit contrite, blabbers more nonsense, and the American people foot the bill for his pathological idiocy.
You can also see this progression in the more major fiasco of the War in Iran. Trump attacked Iran with lots of ferocity but zero forethought - which is the stupidity. When the stupidity led to problems - the Strait of Hormuz closure and the price of oil rising - Trump lied about why he did it, with at least 5 lies, including that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon. He then tried to cover up the truth with threatening bluster alternating with contrived diplomacy. He got nowhere and was humiliated and America, and its allies, became worse off. Trump keeps doubling down defiantly because he needs an exit and doubling down is all he knows how to do.
We can apply this formula to almost anything he touches - tariffs, Epstein, the Blanche confirmation - anything. It all starts with a lie, then an exposure of the lie, then a cover-up, then a humiliation and then - a doubling down.
Why does he double down? Because he's a psychopath - a malignant narcissist, owned by his disorders, in an advanced stage of his decline, and he has zero connection to empathy, shame, contrition, or any other form of humanity.