The Tariff Inflation Scare Is Dead
Sorry, Tarifflationistas. The Data Just Proved You Wrong
For months, critics of President Trump’s tariff strategy have warned of an inevitable wave of inflation. That wave turned out to be a ripple, and it seems to have already ended.
The logic of the tarifflationistas sounded straightforward. They claim that if you raise tariffs on imported goods, consumers would pay more for everything. But new data from the Harvard Tariff Price Tracker tell a very different story. A year after the tracking began, prices do not show signs of tariff-induced increases. What’s more, the only meaningful price growth lately has come from goods completely untouched by tariffs.
The Harvard Tariff Price Tracker, built from the work of Harvard economists Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, and Brent Neiman, uses real-time online prices to isolate how tariffs affect different kinds of goods. The index divides products into three groups—imported goods directly affected by tariffs, domestic goods either in tariff-targeted product codes or in categories where imports dominate, and domestic goods in categories mostly unaffected by trade. By comparing how these move, the tracker offers one of the cleanest measures of what tariffs actually do to consumer prices.
The headline finding is straightforward: year-over-year inflation from tariffs is essentially zero. The tracker began in early October of 2024. By October 12, 2025, imported goods in tariffed categories had risen just two percent, almost exactly matching the Federal Reserve’s two percent inflation target. Meanwhile, domestic goods in tariff-affected categories had actually fallen 0.2 percent below their starting point. Domestic goods untouched by tariffs are up 1.4 percent. After a full year of Trump’s tariff regime, price levels across all three categories undermine the tariff-induced inflation narrative. Whatever inflation story tariffs were supposed to unleash never materialized.
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