Money & Economics

More private credit losses..

 
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Trump just dropped a statement that doesn't seem normal at all...

The guy's literally telling people:
"If you wanna jump into the market... now's the time. Buy stocks before everything blasts off to the moon!"

And he said it crystal clear:
"America's gonna be like a rocket... straight-up vertical climb, nothing else!"

And the man capped it off with a phrase that spooked the entire market:
"Only up" dated May 14

 
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But, but, but… I was reliably informed on this forum that tariffs don’t cause inflation and that “someone else” pays for them …. maffs are hard
============••

Nothing says, “our actions increased beef prices,” like rolling back your actions that increased beef prices.


 
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And many of those 22% are cooking the books….

 
CPI inflation numbers come out today.
They will be cooked.
If they don’t cook them, these, especially the 30 year, will tip over 5%

When that happens, equity investors start looking to exit stocks and setup camp in less volatile bonds at a reasonably good, safe, return

 
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Well dang, gotta stop bragging :) Talked to an assistant today at our Ins. co. and found out our Home Owner's Ins. increased $200 for a year policy. So much for saving $200 on our Auto Ins. :), but our Auto Ins. is a 6 month policy so if it remains the same on next renewal we will be ahead $200, but that is in Nov.

Here is our Home Owner history in our retirement home:
View attachment 242866

Really want to drop Flood Ins., we live on a small hill and no one we have talked to out here has Flood Ins., but every time the wife and I talk about doing so we bring up the Texas Hill Country floods even though we do not live in the Hill Country.

I guess we still can't complain, the year we sold our house, 2024, there was a $1500 increase on our Home Owner's Ins., talk about moving at the right time. Our family who still lives there said theirs is now double. The above premiums do cover three buildings here though so we need to take that into account. But dang, no mortgage, retired fix income and our highest bills we pay are for Insurance. (Home Owners, Vehicle, Health) :(

This Home Owner Ins. increase is like the SS increase that got eaten up with the Medicare increase, so basically no increase.

Have a phone appt. with Agent tomorrow to discuss Home policy. Hopefully, like in the pass, I can get it chewed down some...but that normally means less coverage.
Update, that phone call never took place, my Ins. Agent is out on maternity leave and he is the father (hopefully, lol), Watha? I only got 1 day with my son, the day he was born.

Anyway, finally got to talk to someone today and got our Ins. down $101 so our increase is $164 from last year. $2005 I was told. Removed replacement fence cost. ??? We have a barbed-wire fence, lol, I told them I would be putting a claim in almost monthly for trees breaching our fence, mending fences is just part of your chores out here. Then somehow we had a special coverage for uncommon occurrences, I asked for an example, they said if an airplane's door came off and hit our house we would be covered. Haha, duh, take that coverage off.

They valued our house about $50k more which accounted for some of the increase, they did mention materials cost more, but I have been hearing that for decades. I even remember when roofs doubled in price due to oil cost going up, think that was back in the 90s. Composition Roofs that was.

They use to charge $15 to split up the bill in two payments, now it is free. This helps us since both our Car Ins. and Home Owners Ins. are due less than a month apart. The $2005 is for one year.

If I could ever convince my wife we don't need Flood Ins. here, we could save another $600 a year.
 
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More drips today...

Copper prices hit their highest price EVER
Airfares are going up this week on average 21%
 
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Supply chain is mess because US gov want to make everything in US, this is the main problem for the inflation, i think will be higher and higher after More AND More things have to be made in US.
But we've been getting stuff cheaper for a lot of years, and in the process gave up most of our manufacturing capability. Now it bites us.
 
The most dangerous part about record high auto, credit card, and student loan defaults is…

The fact that there is no recession because banks continue to increase credit card limits, hand out 10 year auto loans, and provide new credit cards to people with 600 Fico scores.

US credit has become a pyramid scheme, as long as you issue more high interest junk debt to subprime borrowers you can tell shareholders the economy is strong and revenues are up.

Banks are increasing credit limits and credit availability instead of decreasing it. Very dangerous. A future recession is off the table. We’re facing a major depression.

 
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