.Another Monday coming up in the Casino, will Trump post some garbage news just before open to move it Green?
Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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Right out of a mob movie... 
Trump Encourages Companies Not to Seek Tariff Refunds
President Donald Trump said he’d remember companies that decline to seek refunds on duties paid after the Supreme Court struck down a large swath of his tariffs. “If they don’t do that, I’ll remember them.”
Trump Encourages Companies Not to Seek Tariff Refunds
President Donald Trump said he’d remember companies that decline to seek refunds on duties paid after the Supreme Court struck down a large swath of his tariffs. “If they don’t do that, I’ll remember them.”
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Warren Buffett is now sitting on $350 billion in cash (actually closer to $400 Billion now) , earning 5% in treasuries.
In his lifetime, he’s gone into cash at such scale only twice before.
1. Pre dot com bust in 1999.
2. Pre Great Recession in 2007.
In both cases, leading stocks collapsed by 80 to 90%.
In his lifetime, he’s gone into cash at such scale only twice before.
1. Pre dot com bust in 1999.
2. Pre Great Recession in 2007.
In both cases, leading stocks collapsed by 80 to 90%.
The Trump administration is considering a bailout for the United Arab Emirates over economic losses sustained as a result of the U.S. war with Iran.
President Trump and his family also happen to have extensive business ties with the UAE. https://trib.al/0208pEr
President Trump and his family also happen to have extensive business ties with the UAE. https://trib.al/0208pEr
The fed just bought $40.5 billion in government debt this month. the treasury bought back $19 billion of its own bonds.
The former treasury secretary is calling for an emergency plan.
Foreign holdings hit a 16-year low.
The dollar lost 27% of its purchasing power in five years.
They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. they didn't stop printing. they just changed the name.
The Fed just bought $40.5 billion in US government debt and called it "reserve management" so you wouldn't notice.
They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. Changed the name. Same operation. Different press release.
Here's what's actually happening. The US government owes $39 trillion. Interest payments alone are nearly $1 trillion a year. That's $1 trillion that produces nothing. No roads, no military, no schools. Just interest to bondholders.
To pay that interest, the government borrows more money. To keep borrowing costs from exploding, the Fed buys the debt to keep demand artificially high and yields artificially low.
They did this openly from 2020 to 2022 and called it QE. Printed $4.8 trillion. The dollar lost 27% of its purchasing power in three years.
Now they're doing $40.5 billion in purchases through mid-May. The Treasury separately bought back $19 billion of its own debt this month. $15 billion of that in a single day. Largest single-day buyback on record.
The former Treasury Secretary, the man who ran the 2008 bailout, just went on Bloomberg and said the US needs an emergency plan ready for a sudden drop in demand for Treasuries. His exact words: today's debt leaves "little room to maneuver" compared to 2008.
When the guy who bailed out the banks is warning that the next crisis might not be fixable, something is different.
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries just dropped below $3 trillion. 16-year low. China dumped to $650 billion. Japan remains the largest holder at $1.24 trillion but the trend is clear. The countries that used to finance America's spending are stepping back.
So who fills the gap? The Fed. With money that didn't exist yesterday.
That money doesn't disappear. It enters the system. It inflates asset prices. Real estate, stocks, gold, commodities. The people who own assets get richer. The people who save in dollars get poorer. Every time. Without exception.
A dollar in 2021 buys 73-76 cents of stuff today. Cumulative inflation of 24-27% in five years. That's not a slow leak. That's a quarter of your savings gone.
The institutions running this system are telling you what they think of the dollar with their own money. Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold last year. Fourth consecutive year. They're converting the currency they print into the one asset they can't print.
Where to position:
Short-duration treasuries only. T-bills inside 3 months. You collect 5.2% yield and you're not trapped if rates spike. Never long-duration bonds in a printing environment. Long bonds get destroyed.
Gold and miners. GLD for direct exposure. GDX for miners running 70%+ margins at $4,800 gold. The miners trade at the widest discount to spot in 20 years. FNV, WPM for royalty streams.
Commodity producers. BHP, Rio Tinto, FCX. When the dollar weakens, commodity revenues rise mechanically. You don't need prices to go up. You just need the dollar to go down. And the Fed is making sure of that.
Hard assets over paper assets. Real estate in supply-constrained markets. Infrastructure plays (ETN, GEV, PWR) with locked-in government spending.
The Fed stopped calling it money printing. That doesn't mean they stopped printing money. The label changed. The math didn't.
every week i break down what the Fed is actually doing versus what they say they're doing. former banker. real positions.
The former treasury secretary is calling for an emergency plan.
Foreign holdings hit a 16-year low.
The dollar lost 27% of its purchasing power in five years.
They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. they didn't stop printing. they just changed the name.
The Fed just bought $40.5 billion in US government debt and called it "reserve management" so you wouldn't notice.
They stopped calling it money printing in 2022. Changed the name. Same operation. Different press release.
Here's what's actually happening. The US government owes $39 trillion. Interest payments alone are nearly $1 trillion a year. That's $1 trillion that produces nothing. No roads, no military, no schools. Just interest to bondholders.
To pay that interest, the government borrows more money. To keep borrowing costs from exploding, the Fed buys the debt to keep demand artificially high and yields artificially low.
They did this openly from 2020 to 2022 and called it QE. Printed $4.8 trillion. The dollar lost 27% of its purchasing power in three years.
Now they're doing $40.5 billion in purchases through mid-May. The Treasury separately bought back $19 billion of its own debt this month. $15 billion of that in a single day. Largest single-day buyback on record.
The former Treasury Secretary, the man who ran the 2008 bailout, just went on Bloomberg and said the US needs an emergency plan ready for a sudden drop in demand for Treasuries. His exact words: today's debt leaves "little room to maneuver" compared to 2008.
When the guy who bailed out the banks is warning that the next crisis might not be fixable, something is different.
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries just dropped below $3 trillion. 16-year low. China dumped to $650 billion. Japan remains the largest holder at $1.24 trillion but the trend is clear. The countries that used to finance America's spending are stepping back.
So who fills the gap? The Fed. With money that didn't exist yesterday.
That money doesn't disappear. It enters the system. It inflates asset prices. Real estate, stocks, gold, commodities. The people who own assets get richer. The people who save in dollars get poorer. Every time. Without exception.
A dollar in 2021 buys 73-76 cents of stuff today. Cumulative inflation of 24-27% in five years. That's not a slow leak. That's a quarter of your savings gone.
The institutions running this system are telling you what they think of the dollar with their own money. Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold last year. Fourth consecutive year. They're converting the currency they print into the one asset they can't print.
Where to position:
Short-duration treasuries only. T-bills inside 3 months. You collect 5.2% yield and you're not trapped if rates spike. Never long-duration bonds in a printing environment. Long bonds get destroyed.
Gold and miners. GLD for direct exposure. GDX for miners running 70%+ margins at $4,800 gold. The miners trade at the widest discount to spot in 20 years. FNV, WPM for royalty streams.
Commodity producers. BHP, Rio Tinto, FCX. When the dollar weakens, commodity revenues rise mechanically. You don't need prices to go up. You just need the dollar to go down. And the Fed is making sure of that.
Hard assets over paper assets. Real estate in supply-constrained markets. Infrastructure plays (ETN, GEV, PWR) with locked-in government spending.
The Fed stopped calling it money printing. That doesn't mean they stopped printing money. The label changed. The math didn't.
every week i break down what the Fed is actually doing versus what they say they're doing. former banker. real positions.
Unfortunately, much of our population doesn't even understand this.
A majority can't even balance their checkbook, and a large portion of those don't even try, they see no need for it.
These are the same people who carry a sizeable credit card balance month after month
========
The US is now spending more on debt interest than on its entire military:
Gross interest expense on US debt has risen to a record $1.3 trillion over the last 12 months, surpassing defense spending of ~$900 billion.
Interest is now the second-largest US government spending category, only behind Social Security at ~$1.6 trillion.
Try this with your checkbook and let me know how it works out.
(Sure you can "print" money just like .gov. What do you think that credit card is for?)
A majority can't even balance their checkbook, and a large portion of those don't even try, they see no need for it.
These are the same people who carry a sizeable credit card balance month after month
========
The US is now spending more on debt interest than on its entire military:
Gross interest expense on US debt has risen to a record $1.3 trillion over the last 12 months, surpassing defense spending of ~$900 billion.
Interest is now the second-largest US government spending category, only behind Social Security at ~$1.6 trillion.
Try this with your checkbook and let me know how it works out.
(Sure you can "print" money just like .gov. What do you think that credit card is for?)
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,835
- 31,500
