mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,745
- 31,367
Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
The level of gas lighting from this administration and publishing fake data is beyond anything we’ve ever seen
LOL
Remember:
The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
Remember:
The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
Last edited:
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,745
- 31,367
This video features Jermal Chandler and Chris Vecchio discussing the recent rally in the S&P 500, which was driven by social media announcements regarding a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The hosts analyze whether this market movement is a genuine signal for long-term growth or merely market noise based on speculative headlines (0:00-0:36).
Key Takeaways from the Discussion:
Don't Buy The Rally?...Iran Ceasefire Just Played The Market
tastylive
Apr 8, 2026 #signalvsnoise #tastylive #unusualwhales
Jermal Chandler and Chris Vecchio breaks down how a sharp positioning unwind, a historic drop in oil futures, and shifting rate expectations are driving a fast rotation back into risk while markets watch the gap between pricing and policy. The S&P 500's increase on the back of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, thanks to social media posts, has led to much speculation. However, with iran rejects ceasefire, the situation remains fluid, highlighting the constant middle east tensions and the impact on the vix and broader market analysis.
Key Takeaways from the Discussion:
- Lack of Confirmation: The hosts emphasize that the ceasefire news lacks formal verification—no signed documents or congressional authorization—making the rally feel unsupported by fundamentals (0:00-0:07).
- Market Divergences: While equities are up, other indicators suggest caution. For instance, the U.S. Dollar is down while Gold is up, which is unusual for a risk-on day (0:33-1:54).
- Hedges Remain: Despite the rally, the S&P 500 put-call ratio remains high (1.8-1.9), indicating that traders are not unwinding their hedges and remain nervous about potential volatility (2:31-2:58).
- Energy Sector Disconnect: There is a notable divergence between oil futures and energy equities, with energy stocks failing to validate the downward move in oil prices (3:33-3:46).
- Geopolitical Concerns: Reports of Iran stopping ships in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts suggest that the ceasefire terms are potentially untenable, keeping the geopolitical situation fluid (4:03-4:33).
Don't Buy The Rally?...Iran Ceasefire Just Played The Market
tastylive
Apr 8, 2026 #signalvsnoise #tastylive #unusualwhales
Jermal Chandler and Chris Vecchio breaks down how a sharp positioning unwind, a historic drop in oil futures, and shifting rate expectations are driving a fast rotation back into risk while markets watch the gap between pricing and policy. The S&P 500's increase on the back of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement, thanks to social media posts, has led to much speculation. However, with iran rejects ceasefire, the situation remains fluid, highlighting the constant middle east tensions and the impact on the vix and broader market analysis.
Chokolinho
Getting comfortable
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,745
- 31,367
I've always wondered what's going on when charts look like this. Seems to me that some sort of manipulation must be going on.
The metals, and commodities markets are 100% being manipulated massively.
Paper Silver, Gold, Oil especially.
The problem comes in when delivery is demanded.
Ex:
Paper oil trading tonight at $105 p/bbl for May delivery.(Up $10 /bbl from earlier today due to some nutjob saying he's going to blockade the Straight)
Real Spot oil taking possession is $127-$150
Paper Silver, Gold, Oil especially.
The problem comes in when delivery is demanded.
Ex:
Paper oil trading tonight at $105 p/bbl for May delivery.(Up $10 /bbl from earlier today due to some nutjob saying he's going to blockade the Straight)
Real Spot oil taking possession is $127-$150
A one-sentence disclosure of how easy it is to deceive with statistics. The 2nd half of the sentence shows that the 1st half, using average, is useless and misleading.
MSN
MSN
