The concern about the storm is all about how long you expect live and how much your of net worth/life savings are tied up in a house
Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
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The concern about the storm is all about how long you expect live and how much your of net worth/life savings are tied up in a house
Since the storms are only a couple of years, sure hope I still have that much life left, lol 2009 was Foreclosure Heaven, that is, for the Buyers.
Ya'll remember the 5 year balloon loans (low monthly payments), people were getting those, mainly in California, to try to flip the house with a profit before the balloon payment came due. Unfortunately, many did not sell their house and ended up in foreclosure at the 5 year mark. Think there were even 3 year balloon loans too. That was all part of the stupidity back then, heck that storm was very predictable, banks were giving loans out to anyone that showed up, no Social Security number needed. This I know first hand, had two neighbors, they spoke very little English, both got into the houses with those loans. Let me share this, it is against the law, well in Texas, to evict a pregnant person. I don't know if these guys ever paid their loans, I know their woman stayed pregnant all the time.
All I can say, if you end up in a storm, ride it out, don't sell, heck even rent it if you have to move...just don't default on your payments.
Only a couple of years? So you recovered 30-40% losses in your 401K in 2008-2009 "in a couple of years"? doubtful
Most people it took 5 minimum closer to 10 years, to break even.
Thats my point. I'm not in the market because if we were to see another 30-40% haircut, that takes 5-10 years to recover losses, I could be dead before I get back to even, let alone lost opportunity cost
Time to revisit this
The Math of Loss
Losses hurt more than they appear because recovery isn’t symmetrical. If your portfolio drops 20 %, you need a 25 % gain to get back to even. Drop 30 %, and you need nearly 43 %. A 50 % loss? That takes a 100 % rebound. These aren’t abstract numbers; they’re the reality of compounding in reverse.Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
I thought we were talking about the housing market, that is what I replied to:Only a couple of years? So you recovered 30-40% losses in your 401K in 2008-2009 "in a couple of years"? doubtful
Most people it took 5 minimum closer to 10 years, to break even.
Thats my point. I'm not in the market because if we were to see another 30-40% haircut, that takes 5-10 years to recover losses, I could be dead before I get back to even, let alone lost opportunity cost
Time to revisit this
The Math of Loss
Losses hurt more than they appear because recovery isn’t symmetrical. If your portfolio drops 20 %, you need a 25 % gain to get back to even. Drop 30 %, and you need nearly 43 %. A 50 % loss? That takes a 100 % rebound. These aren’t abstract numbers; they’re the reality of compounding in reverse.
Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
To add, just found out our granddaughter just went into contract on a house. Looking at the house, the pricing in the 20 year old neighborhood she bought in are actually increasing from last year. She is paying about $30k more than last year on the house.
I just checked our old neighborhood, zero change in prices, actually looks exactly like it did a year ago when we sold, well maybe $10k more. I know Texas is different than the US trend, it is almost like we are behind when the housing market changes. Maybe things will change in Texas but the wife and I just looked at about a dozen homes where she bought and all of their values increased from last year. The avg. seems to be around $30-40k increase from what we can tell.
I just checked our old neighborhood, zero change in prices, actually looks exactly like it did a year ago when we sold, well maybe $10k more. I know Texas is different than the US trend, it is almost like we are behind when the housing market changes. Maybe things will change in Texas but the wife and I just looked at about a dozen homes where she bought and all of their values increased from last year. The avg. seems to be around $30-40k increase from what we can tell.
That is correct, many people do not factor that in. Say you are averaging 5-7% a year in the Market and take a loss one year, say 10%, you now have to make up the 10% plus the 5-7% you also loss for that year. Long-Term Investing...does not work for us...Only a couple of years? So you recovered 30-40% losses in your 401K in 2008-2009 "in a couple of years"? doubtful
Most people it took 5 minimum closer to 10 years, to break even.
Thats my point. I'm not in the market because if we were to see another 30-40% haircut, that takes 5-10 years to recover losses, I could be dead before I get back to even, let alone lost opportunity cost
Time to revisit this
The Math of Loss
Losses hurt more than they appear because recovery isn’t symmetrical. If your portfolio drops 20 %, you need a 25 % gain to get back to even. Drop 30 %, and you need nearly 43 %. A 50 % loss? That takes a 100 % rebound. These aren’t abstract numbers; they’re the reality of compounding in reverse.
Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
This is why the Market, well one of the reasons, is referred to as Gambling. You will never get a correct answer from someone winning a lottery. How much did you spend verses how much did you make. Gambling Casinos are not HUGE buildings because they are losing money...haha
Texas is very much in the ame boat as Florida. Just that you live out in the sticks.
Look at N Dallas. I lived there for better part of 20 years and I have a friend there in real estate. A shit ton of homes that arent selling because prices are crazy high.
I am sorry, should of mentioned our granddaughters house is in the huge Katy area. We are seeing 30-90 days on the market on the houses we looked at there. Which is what our old neighborhood (South of The Woodlands) is averaging too, same as last year when we sold. Ours was 76 days before contract. Our daughters, 180 days, sold last year, but they were way too high in their listing plus they were in a higher priced home market than us. Not to knock them but they bought a one story 2600 sq ft house for $550,000 Yes it is a brand new house but WOW...way, way, way over priced IMO. Crazy but in her area, one of the fastest growing areas as of the beginning of this year in Texas, they are selling like hotcakes. But these are new homes, which is a whole different market...oh get this, they are building/selling so fast that they have water restrictions, yes, who every approved of all that building did not properly factor all the water needed. Crazy huh.
So North Dallas has a bunch of older homes, being north of University Park, alot of multimillion dollar homes too.
Now North of Dallas, Plano (older homes there), Frisco are more like the areas I mentioned but a bit higher than where our granddaughter and we use to live. But closer to where our daughters live.
I will try to look tomorrow in those areas...
Only reason I am sharing is because I have been watching our old area for over two years now. I am one that goes back to see if we got a good deal on our house. I think we are still within $10-15k range like I mentioned of house increases from last year.
Can't dwell on that, factor in utilities and taxes on a non-homestead house had we waited another year, not worth it...maybe if we would of rented it, did not really want that hassle...
WhoHoo!
Made a whopping $60 in the market today, spending $20 of it on Pizza to celebrate!
Golden Age
Made a whopping $60 in the market today, spending $20 of it on Pizza to celebrate!
Golden Age
I would think a bottle of bourbon would taste better.
I'm running out of bourbon storage... stocked up for the end of the world 