If you look just at the jobs, some argue that we had a recession during Biden's last year, thus why Biden lost. And a move up on Trump's win, and then a drop. ( aka double dip recession ).
( private sector jobs .. )
Though others define recessions as negative GDP .. with AI coming on strong, and the tariffs and related economic rules transitions many businesses are cautious on capex expenditures other than building AI data centers.
From what I can tell the usual GDP and employment numbers are disconnecting.
white collar jobs gonna get hit, and those who have nice homes with mortgages and student loans have a freight train headed their way imho.
Strategists at ING speculated that the dollar might have peaked after its best monthly showing since 2022. The U.S. currency has struggled mightily in 2025. At the end of June, it had tallied its worst first-half showing since at least the early 1970s.