I didnt say anything about 3 year trends. This is a comparison of 2024 vs 2025 brought up by the Liar in Chief
Fact remains, this is flat false, blatant made up LIE
Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
I didnt say anything about 3 year trends. This is a comparison of 2024 vs 2025 brought up by the Liar in Chief
Fact remains, this is flat false, blatant made up LIE
I'm not directing anything at you. I'm directing it at all of the dishonest media outlets with the sleazy headlines trying to convince readers what they want them to think, that Trump and/or the economy is good or bad, based on cherry picked data, instead of the true big picture.
BIG WARNING: THE FIRST MAJOR DOMINO HAS FALLEN.Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors.
And this is not a small thing.Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager with $307.5 billion in AUM.The reason they are permanently halting redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) is to manage a "liquidity mismatch" caused by a surge in withdrawal requests.
But isn't this issue related to Blue Owl only?Well, this is certainly not the case.
Blue Owl’s move to permanently restrict redemptions is signalling broader stress in $3 trillion private credit market.Here are a few warning signs:
Roughly 40% of direct lending companies are generating negative free operating cash flow.30% of companies with debt maturing before 2027 have negative EBITDA, making them extremely difficult to refinance.Default rates for middle-market (MM) borrowers have reached 4.55% and are only rising .Downgrades have outpaced upgrades for seven consecutive quarters.If the stress continues in the private credit market, it'll first impact the small businesses for whom the private credit market is a critical funding source.
Additionally, it'll cause refinancing costs to go up and will result in more defaults, which will create a vicious cycle.The only way to stop this is by lowering interest rates and providing liquidity.This is probably why the Fed pumped $18 billion into the economy overnight, as more entities are experiencing a liquidity crunch.
But this amount is too small to stop stress in the private credit market.The Fed would have to go full dovish here, or the dominos will continue to fall.
Boy I’ve stayed away from Silver and Crypto, don’t have the stomach for it.
The Gold ride has been fun and less volatile but it seems to be stuck at $5K now. Still by day trading the #GLD ETF if you watch it closely you can still make $100-$200 p/day buying 15-20 shares as it commonly moves $8-$10 intraday. Just don’t get greedy and smash the sell button once you see it stall.
I miss the days of Dec/Jan when you could let it ride and wake up to a big gain just about every day.
The Gold ride has been fun and less volatile but it seems to be stuck at $5K now. Still by day trading the #GLD ETF if you watch it closely you can still make $100-$200 p/day buying 15-20 shares as it commonly moves $8-$10 intraday. Just don’t get greedy and smash the sell button once you see it stall.
I miss the days of Dec/Jan when you could let it ride and wake up to a big gain just about every day.
Between the market futures dipping, possible tariff rulings from SCOTUS, alien disclosure, anticipated war with Iran (why I don’t know) and Epstein hammers yet to drop, I think I’ll sit out today
These can’t be right? Trump just said yesterday that the economy is awesome, inflation is zero, Q4 GDP is going to be 4%…. Obviously he needs to fire more people who didn’t get the message ..
But fortunately he also said there’s no tax on Social Security, so all good
BREAKING
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Act.: 1.4%, Est.: 2.8%, Prev.: 4.4%
PCE 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
Core PCE 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
PCE 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.8%
PCE Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 2.9%
But fortunately he also said there’s no tax on Social Security, so all good
BREAKING
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Act.: 1.4%, Est.: 2.8%, Prev.: 4.4%
PCE 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
Core PCE 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
PCE 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.8%
PCE Core 3.0% YoY, Exp. 2.9%
this sounds deeply scary--- but I am not sure if I understand what is going on. Is this the equivalent of a "run" on the bank, so the bank closes it's doors "temporarily"???
"...Republicans in Congress cut over $1 billion from programs that helped schools and food banks buy food directly... "
When I see that, I see the US Government buying food directly, not schools and food banks. Kind of reminds me of the US Government buying Health Insurance directly "for people"
Arjun
IPCT Contributor