Money & Economics

bigredfish said:

Central Banks Now Hold More Gold Than US Treasuries​

Central Banks Now Hold More Gold Than US Treasuries | ZeroHedge

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I think this simple-looking comparison has a lot of complex interactions behind it, to the point of not knowing what it means, if it has any meaning at all. I don't have any answers, just a lot of questions. I can't find in the article how the gold is valued. I'm assuming in dollars, which makes it it kind of an incestuous comparison. What if both the gold and treasuries were valued against some other currency, or some other commodity, would the result be very different? Gold has doubled against the dollar in approximately 2 years, so even if the banks hadn't bought any gold, the comparison would have been wildly different just because time passed. If the gold price does down 10% against the dollar, the stated result will be false.

Does this stat just confirm that the dollar is tanking, which we already knew? Does it mean something else? It's kind of hard to compare ounces to dollars, akin to asking if 3 decibels weighs more than 50 watts.
 
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Agree its complicated.

  • Dollar is declining at a rapid pace
  • Central Banks have been loading up on gold for some time (Europe, Asia, BRICS, AND US)
  • Inflation isnt going away
  • China and others are starting to accept yuan and other currencies for trade, Oil being the big OhSHit moment as they have recently proposed. Russia too
  • US is dabbling in crypto for reserves
  • If foreign investors start backing off Treasury bills at auctions the world will indeed come to a halt. They have to sell a bunch each month to refi the ones outstanding
  • All depends on how they value it, as you say. I'm guessing they will let it will float with a floor yet to be decided

Personally i think we're going to see a major clusterfuck in the next 12-18 months. I just wish I had more physical and/or real estate I could sit on for a few years
 
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bigredfish said:
Agree its complicated.

  • Dollar is declining at a rapid pace
  • Central Banks have been loading up on gold for some time (Europe, Asia, BRICS, AND US)
  • Inflation isnt going away
  • China and others are starting to accept yuan and other currencies for trade, Oil being the big OhSHit moment as they have recently proposed. Russia too
  • US is dabbling in crypto for reserves
  • If foreign investors start backing off Treasury bills at auctions the world will indeed come to a halt. They have to sell a bunch each month to refi the ones outstanding
  • All depends on how they value it, as you say. I'm guessing they will let it will float with floor yet to be decided

Personally i think we're going to see a major clusterfuck in the next 12-18 months. I just wish I had more physical and/or real estate I could sit on for a few years
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OIL is the big one
 
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bigredfish said:
I see Fed QE cranking up. Buying our own bonds … they’ve been dabbling buying a few $Billion in recent months
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Stable coins .. a play to beget more us treasury buying to cover our debt
 
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Yeah I think its close. Expect it to bounce around and consolidate a while.

I'm in #GLD ETF and its been a nice ride. But I;m holding that long term regardless
 
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