Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
The Trump White House
Cabinet members all against it, but Trump is instead trusting Jared and Witkoff, two real estate guys and one his Jewish minder...
He's desperate and mentally unstable
Cabinet members all against it, but Trump is instead trusting Jared and Witkoff, two real estate guys and one his Jewish minder...
He's desperate and mentally unstable
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 19,065
- 31,907
A Deal Doesn’t End This War | Robert Pape on Iran
In this episode of The Escalation Trap, Professor Robert Pape discusses the implications of a reported U.S.-Iran agreement. He argues that a signed deal does not necessarily signify the end of the war, and he provides a framework for frontline forces and observers to track the actual situation.
Key Takeaways:
- The Only True Signal of Peace: Professor Pape asserts that the war is not over until U.S. forces are physically withdrawn from the region, including ships, aircraft, and ground troops (2:21-4:03).
- The Escalation Trap & Leverage: He argues that we are in the "middle game" of the conflict. Iran is gaining leverage due to diminishing global oil inventories, which creates a "knife-edge" supply/demand situation that makes the U.S. and regional energy markets vulnerable (14:38-19:50).
- Domestic Political Pressures: Pape explains that the conflict is sustained by domestic political mechanisms. For the Trump administration, admitting to a withdrawal before the midterms presents significant domestic political risks (10:29-12:40).
- Shifting Regional Alliances: The Abraham Accords framework is described as being in "tatters." Regional states are increasingly "bandwagoning" with Iran rather than balancing against it, as it has become clear the U.S. cannot protect them (26:00-28:40).
- Potential for Escalation: Even with a deal in place, the potential for flare-ups remains high. Pape points to Israel's desire to maintain regional primacy and the volatility of Hezbollah's position as significant risks that could derail any diplomatic progress (23:05-25:50, 29:28-30:25).
- Nuclear Deterrence Debates: Pape suggests that the current conflict will lead to new debates about nuclear deterrence in the region, as observers note that states without nuclear weapons (like Iran and Ukraine) have been attacked, while those that possess them (like North Korea) have not (32:55-33:48).
Shit show
The United States surrender document
The United States surrender document
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Lying, ignorant, dementia patient grifter/Con/criminal says what?
A brief moment of sanity…
The MAGA cult has told me repeatedly that everyone is Hezbollah/Hamas…
That was always a stupid, low IQ, cop out.
Now even the Grifter-in-Chief admits it
The MAGA cult has told me repeatedly that everyone is Hezbollah/Hamas…
That was always a stupid, low IQ, cop out.
Now even the Grifter-in-Chief admits it
WOW! Criticizing knocking down apartment buildings... netanyahu must be sooooo pissed off!
They still haven't released the actual text, now we're supposed to believe his "talking points" LOL!
Fucking grifter forgets to mention (and so will his supporters as they're mostly uneducated) that we HAD lower gas prices and the Strait WAS open before shithead started all of this. And there was NEVER a threat of nuclear war from iran
Fucking grifter forgets to mention (and so will his supporters as they're mostly uneducated) that we HAD lower gas prices and the Strait WAS open before shithead started all of this. And there was NEVER a threat of nuclear war from iran
I think MAGA Cult supporters should have to pay for everyone else.
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 19,065
- 31,907
Preston Stewart's take on this ..
US-Iran Deal Leaked (And It's Bad)
Preston Stewart
Jun 16, 2026
Based on this, we were in a better position before the war
A new leak purports to show the text of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and it's not great. From this document, which US officials have not yet commented on, it appears that Iran's negotiating position has increased while ours decreased throughout the war. In comparing terms before the beginning of hostilities to this document, there a number of areas where Iran gets relief but significant US demands are left unaddressed. I'd like to stress again that US officials have not confirmed or denied this leak and as of recording the official stance is that the terms may be released at a later date.
This video provides an analysis of a leaked Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran to end the ongoing war. The creator, Preston Stewart, argues that the terms of this deal significantly favor Iran and place the United States in a weaker negotiating position than it held before the conflict began (0:00 - 0:45).
Key takeaways from the leaked document:
US-Iran Deal Leaked (And It's Bad)
Preston Stewart
Jun 16, 2026
Based on this, we were in a better position before the war
A new leak purports to show the text of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and it's not great. From this document, which US officials have not yet commented on, it appears that Iran's negotiating position has increased while ours decreased throughout the war. In comparing terms before the beginning of hostilities to this document, there a number of areas where Iran gets relief but significant US demands are left unaddressed. I'd like to stress again that US officials have not confirmed or denied this leak and as of recording the official stance is that the terms may be released at a later date.
This video provides an analysis of a leaked Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran to end the ongoing war. The creator, Preston Stewart, argues that the terms of this deal significantly favor Iran and place the United States in a weaker negotiating position than it held before the conflict began (0:00 - 0:45).
Key takeaways from the leaked document:
- Nuclear Program: The deal lacks concrete plans for the dismantlement of nuclear facilities or the removal of enriched uranium. Instead, both parties have agreed to maintain the status quo and "continue talking" about these issues in a future final agreement (1:36 - 2:53).
- Sanctions Relief: Contrary to pre-war demands, the MoU outlines a full lifting of all US and international sanctions. In the interim, the US will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil exports and other services (3:02 - 4:13).
- $300 Billion Investment: The United States has committed to working with regional partners to facilitate at least $300 billion in funding for Iran's economic rehabilitation and reconstruction (5:50 - 6:53).
- Strait of Hormuz: Both nations have agreed to end their respective naval blockades and restore maritime traffic to pre-war volumes within 30 days (6:56 - 8:16).
- Ceasefire: The agreement calls for an immediate, permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, the creator notes that hostilities have reportedly continued despite this article (8:23 - 9:26).