Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

LOL, the calvary known as the UK and France are getting REALLY serious about talking about opening up the Strait. Wonder if these leaders will hand out AA style coins to commerate each meeting.

oilprice.com

UK, France Lead 30-Nation Military Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz | OilPrice.com

UK and France are leading a 30-plus nation military planning conference to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled.
oilprice.com oilprice.com
 
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Too bad we don't have a few A10s hanging around.

 
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Welp, the politicians are probably under house arrest by the IRGC so don't expect any cohesive response from Iran anytime soon. IRGC probably can't find a credible political negotiator at this point who can speak on the behalf of "Iran".

 
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Two weeks to stop the spread…

BREAKING: It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, the Pentagon has informed Congress -WaPo

 
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The US naval blockade theater with Iran is collapsing in real time.

At least 34 oil tankers and gas carriers linked to Iran have already sliced straight through Washington’s much hyped cordon in the Persian Gulf.

19 vessels sailed out past the blockade line. Fifteen more sailed in. All of them crossed the imaginary line the US tried to draw from Ras al-Hadd in Oman northeast to the Iran-Pakistan border.

According to Vortexa tracking data reports the exact numbers and what we're seeing is a direct bypass of the American porous blockade despite Trump’s repeated boasts of success. Nour News and other outlets close to the IRGC are framing it even more bluntly — the so called naval siege has been broken before it could even get started.

The US Navy simply doesn’t have enough hulls on station to stop every Iranian commercial fleet vessel (only single digits have been seized). The tankers go dark, reroute, and keep the oil flowing anyway.
This is the Epstein coalition’s grand gunboat theatre laid bare: a blockade announced with maximum fanfare that is already being treated like a speed bump by the very nation it was supposed to strangle.

Now ask yourself how many esptein coalition aligned vessels are getting through Iran's blockade? Quite the humilating contrast.

The owners of the Gulf are still very much in business and in control of what enters Hormuz. And every tanker that slips through the US mirage of a Blockade is another public humiliation for an empire that can’t even enforce its own threats.

 
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bigredfish said:
Russia has been hit hard on O&G too. Doubt it’s them
Click to expand...

Of course, I am not saying Russia is hitting their own Oil and Gas.

from a strategic pov makes complete sense for Russia and Iran to hit other Oil and Gas suppliers.

Makes perfect sense for them to do it.
 
bigredfish said:
The US naval blockade theater with Iran is collapsing in real time.

At least 34 oil tankers and gas carriers linked to Iran have already sliced straight through Washington’s much hyped cordon in the Persian Gulf.

19 vessels sailed out past the blockade line. Fifteen more sailed in. All of them crossed the imaginary line the US tried to draw from Ras al-Hadd in Oman northeast to the Iran-Pakistan border.

According to Vortexa tracking data reports the exact numbers and what we're seeing is a direct bypass of the American porous blockade despite Trump’s repeated boasts of success. Nour News and other outlets close to the IRGC are framing it even more bluntly — the so called naval siege has been broken before it could even get started.

The US Navy simply doesn’t have enough hulls on station to stop every Iranian commercial fleet vessel (only single digits have been seized). The tankers go dark, reroute, and keep the oil flowing anyway.
This is the Epstein coalition’s grand gunboat theatre laid bare: a blockade announced with maximum fanfare that is already being treated like a speed bump by the very nation it was supposed to strangle.

Now ask yourself how many esptein coalition aligned vessels are getting through Iran's blockade? Quite the humilating contrast.

The owners of the Gulf are still very much in business and in control of what enters Hormuz. And every tanker that slips through the US mirage of a Blockade is another public humiliation for an empire that can’t even enforce its own threats.

Click to expand...


USA does not have a full blockade, and there could be good reasons to let some Oil / Gas out of the Gulf to feed the global supply.

Remember any FULL tanker that is stuck in the Gulf can not go to the USA to refill once it drops its' current load.

Due to the disruptions and longer shipping routes, more tanks are needed.

Expecting a demand destruction on Oil.
 
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This is a solid video covering Iranian power structures

Harvard Professor Answers Iranian Government Questions | Tech Support | WIRED
WIRED

Apr 22, 2026 #Iran #IranWar #Trump
Professor Tarek Masoud joins WIRED to answer the internet's burning questions about the Government of Iran. Is it wrong to call Iran a dictatorship? What is actually the best future for Iran? What’s one thing about the current Iran war that people are misunderstanding? Answers to these questions and many more await on Iran Politics Support.




In this video, Professor Tarek Masoud from Harvard University answers common questions regarding the political landscape of Iran and the current state of its government. Here is a summary of the key topics discussed:

  • Is Iran a dictatorship? (0:15 - 2:28): Professor Masoud explains that while the Islamic Republic of Iran is fundamentally a dictatorship with a Supreme Leader holding supreme power, it retains hybrid, electoral features, such as an elected president and parliament, which are not entirely meaningless.
  • The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) (2:29 - 4:48): Described as a state-within-a-state, the IRGC acts as a loyalist military force separate from the national army. They focus on protecting the regime, cracking down on protests, supporting regional proxies, and controlling a significant portion of the Iranian economy.
  • Leadership Succession (4:49 - 6:09): The selection of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader (and subsequently his son) was driven by political maneuvering among regime insiders rather than purely religious credentials, with the IRGC acting as key "kingmakers."
  • Protest Dynamics (6:10 - 7:53): Despite frequent protests (such as the 2009 Green Revolution and the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement), the regime remains durable due to brutal repression and the strategic use of elections to channel public energy. The professor emphasizes that protests are unlikely to stop, even after the current war concludes.
  • The Current War and Misunderstandings (7:54 - 10:24): The professor highlights that the ongoing conflict is as much an information war as a physical one. He warns that the internet is saturated with propaganda and that people should be skeptical of viral content. He also notes that even if the regime survives the bombing, their domestic power balance may be permanently weakened.
  • The Future of Iran (10:25 - 13:07): Professor Masoud expresses optimism that Iran could sustain a functional democracy if freed from the current oppressive regime. He emphasizes the extraordinary potential of the Persian people and their historical contributions to science and global civilization, concluding with a hope for a peaceful future between the American and Iranian peoples.
 
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Secretary of the Navy John Phelan is leaving the Trump administration "effective immediately."
STATEMENT:
Secretary of the Navy John C. Phelan is departing the administration, effective immediately.
On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy.
We wish him well in his future endeavors.
Undersecretary Hung Cao will become Acting Secretary of the Navy.

 
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HEINRICH: It was not immediately clear if Phelan resigned or was fired but Fox News has learned in the last few moments he was fired.
This marks the 34th military officer that Secretary Hegseth has fired since taking over the agency.

 
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Israel killed journalist Amal Khalil and blocked rescue teams from reaching her for hours today.
She received direct threats from an Israeli soldier explicitly saying they will target her, a journalist!
Her body has now been recovered.



 
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Why Game Theory Predicts a Long War in Iran
TLDR News Global
1.12M subscribers


Few people expected Trump to start another war in the Middle East, and even when it did kick off, most people didn't think it'd last that long. In this video, we're taking a look at game theory, explain how this all happened and why it predicts a long war.

 
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