Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

ECB chief Christine Lagarde warns of possible food rationing due to fertilizer disruptions “A third of fertilizers are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz... that is at risk.”[Food is a function of energy. Most fertilizer is made using natural gas. Natural gas yields hydrogen; combines with air's nitrogen → ammonia fertilizer. This process helps to produce half of the world's food, but it's energy-intensive and tied to natural gas price and availability.]

 
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They dont seem to be uprising against the current regime to me... :idk:
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Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Displays "Khorramshahr 4" and "Emad" ballistic missiles amid massive popular gatherings in Iranian cities




An Iranian message just hours before the truce expires… a display of the Khorramshahr missile and chants of "Death to America".. the message is clear




Operators of Iran's ballistic missiles in the Revolutionary Guard showcase Khorramshahr missiles before the Iranian people

 
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The Left Wants Politics, Not Military Strength, To Decide Iran War Outcome | Victor Davis Hanson
The Daily Signal
and Victor Davis Hanson


Apr 21, 2026 Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words
Will the 360-degree pressures that surround President Donald Trump force him to stop short of dealing the final death blow to the Iranian regime?

I hope not.

Why, after Iran has been militarily destroyed and has a restive population that could rebel any minute now, does Iran keep saying that it’s winning, and why do people put pressure on Donald Trump as if he’s losing?

The answer is that war is not necessarily just about military affairs alone—it’s politics, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words.”





In this video, Victor Davis Hanson analyzes the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, arguing that while the U.S. has achieved significant military success, the situation is being complicated by internal and external political pressures on President Donald Trump.

Key Takeaways:​

  • Military vs. Political Reality: Despite Iran being militarily prostrate and economically crippled, the regime remains defiant (1:05-1:13). Hanson asserts that the war has shifted from a purely military endeavor to a political battle (6:35-7:16).
  • Pressures on the Administration: Trump faces a 360-degree environment of criticism that threatens to curtail his success (8:27-8:36):
    • Domestic Politics: The upcoming midterm elections have created anxiety among some Republicans, and Democratic opposition is leveraging the War Powers Act (2:43-3:21).
    • External Opposition: European nations are looking for ways to interject themselves into the conflict to protect their own oil interests (3:36-4:12).
    • Fragmented Right-Wing Criticism: Surprisingly, Trump also faces backlash from certain factions on the right, including figures like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Candace Owens, whose rhetoric Hanson suggests has increasingly mirrored that of the hard left (4:26-5:55).
  • Logistical Concerns: There is a notable weapons shortage regarding high-end munitions like Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, which complicates the ability to sustain a prolonged kinetic engagement (5:59-6:34).
Conclusion:Hanson concludes that while Donald Trump is winning on the battlefield, his ultimate success depends on his ability to ignore these "centrifugal forces" and conclude the conflict before political maneuvering neuters his strategic achievements (7:58-8:30).
 
bigredfish said:
They dont seem to be uprising against the current regime to me... :idk:
===========




Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Displays "Khorramshahr 4" and "Emad" ballistic missiles amid massive popular gatherings in Iranian cities




An Iranian message just hours before the truce expires… a display of the Khorramshahr missile and chants of "Death to America".. the message is clear




Operators of Iran's ballistic missiles in the Revolutionary Guard showcase Khorramshahr missiles before the Iranian people

Click to expand...


fyi - there are reports that Iranian Shiite proxies have been called from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, to come to Iran to support the Shiite Regime
( similar to the Pope calling on Christians to protect the Vatican in a time of crisis )
 
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mat200 said:
The Left Wants Politics, Not Military Strength, To Decide Iran War Outcome | Victor Davis Hanson
The Daily Signal
and Victor Davis Hanson


Apr 21, 2026 Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words
Will the 360-degree pressures that surround President Donald Trump force him to stop short of dealing the final death blow to the Iranian regime?

I hope not.

Why, after Iran has been militarily destroyed and has a restive population that could rebel any minute now, does Iran keep saying that it’s winning, and why do people put pressure on Donald Trump as if he’s losing?

The answer is that war is not necessarily just about military affairs alone—it’s politics, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words.”





In this video, Victor Davis Hanson analyzes the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, arguing that while the U.S. has achieved significant military success, the situation is being complicated by internal and external political pressures on President Donald Trump.

Key Takeaways:​

  • Military vs. Political Reality: Despite Iran being militarily prostrate and economically crippled, the regime remains defiant (1:05-1:13). Hanson asserts that the war has shifted from a purely military endeavor to a political battle (6:35-7:16).
  • Pressures on the Administration: Trumpfaces a 360-degree environment of criticism that threatens to curtail his success (8:27-8:36):
    • Domestic Politics: The upcoming midterm elections have created anxiety among some Republicans, and Democratic opposition is leveraging the War Powers Act (2:43-3:21).
    • External Opposition: European nations are looking for ways to interject themselves into the conflict to protect their own oil interests (3:36-4:12).
    • Fragmented Right-Wing Criticism: Surprisingly, Trump also faces backlash from certain factions on the right, including figures like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Candace Owens, whose rhetoric Hanson suggests has increasingly mirrored that of the hard left (4:26-5:55).
  • Logistical Concerns: There is a notable weapons shortage regarding high-end munitions like Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, which complicates the ability to sustain a prolonged kinetic engagement (5:59-6:34).
Conclusion:Hanson concludes that while Donald Trump is winning on the battlefield, his ultimate success depends on his ability to ignore these "centrifugal forces" and conclude the conflict before political maneuvering neuters his strategic achievements (7:58-8:30).
Click to expand...


Or he could just leave.

Wasn’t a problem before he created one.
The fantasy of “they’ll have nukes in two weeks” has been debunked a dozen times.

The straight was open before March.

No strategic goals achieved

Destroyed long time relationships with other countries

Spent $50+ Billion so far but can’t afford to fund healthcare for Americans

Oil/gas/plastics/fertilizer and other costs going up substantially and won’t be “back to normal” for some time even if it stops today. That’s more financial burden on Americans

Allowing Israel to get away with another slaughter in Lebanon

I could go on…
 
mat200 said:
fyi - there are reports that Iranian Shiite proxies have been called from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, to come to Iran to support the Shiite Regime
( similar to the Pope calling on Christians to protect the Vatican in a time of crisis )
Click to expand...
It only makes sense for them to do so. They (Religious sect) do NOT want to lose power.
 
The Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Mike Huckabee has been called to Washington D.C. to consult with Trump and others''
 
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