Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
Physical oil delivery topping $200
Don’t be fooled by the manipulated paper price
Don’t be fooled by the manipulated paper price
Iran War Cost Tracker — First Week Cost $11.3 Billion
The Pentagon told Congress the first week of the Iran war cost $11.3 billion. Track the running total in real time.
iran-cost-ticker.com
Attachments
I thought they all rode camels?
That’s what many would like you to believe
That’s what many would like you to believe
Iran War Cost Tracker — First Week Cost $11.3 Billion
The Pentagon told Congress the first week of the Iran war cost $11.3 billion. Track the running total in real time.iran-cost-ticker.com
Don’t ask the US Budget Director …
The War in the Middle East (as of the morning of April 16, 2026): The US Plan Has Failed (The Wall Street Journal)...
(continuation, beginning here).
Moreover, he has few options left. Either continue to build up his group in the region in order to launch another strike against Iran a bit later (which he is currently doing). Or, after some wrangling, agree to Iran's proposal.
Meanwhile, the American press is openly writing about the complete failure of Trump's Iran operation. Since the result turned out to be exactly the opposite of what was expected. For example, as The Wall Street Journal notes, the new leadership in Tehran has turned out to be even tougher than the previous one:
“Instead of more reasonable leaders, militarists and apocalyptic cultists have come to power. The Iranian authorities - veterans of the IRGC - are only tightening their course.”
And further, this influential American publication states that the American strategy has failed. "Instead of capitulation, Tehran has purged the opposition and found a new weapon - control over the Strait of Hormuz."
He is echoed by veterans of Israeli special services. For example, the former head of the Iranian department of Israeli military intelligence, Citrinovich, said the following:
“The war has changed the regime - and not for the better. We have created a reality that is worse than the one the Iranians faced before the war.”
And this is what Trump has "managed to achieve" so far.
At the same time, Iran continues its strategic offensive against the positions of the US and its partners, threatening, following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait with the help of Yemeni Houthis if the US does not lift the blockade of Iranian traffic in it.
“We will not allow any export or import activity in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the American blockade continues. Our armed forces will not allow trade to pass through the Red Sea if the maritime blockade continues. If America continues its maritime blockade, it will be considered a precursor to a breach of the truce.”
Which will be a real nightmare primarily for Saudi Arabia. Since in this case, the East-West oil pipeline will largely lose its meaning. Since the supertankers, which are mainly loaded there, are not designed for passage through the Suez Canal and will not be able to leave the waters of the Red Sea. Which will lead to an almost complete stop of oil exports from this country. And to the existing drop of 15 million barrels/day, an additional approximately 5 million barrels/day will be added. And in general, all traffic through Suez will have to be routed around Africa.
And against this backdrop, the prices of oil actually sold on the markets today (not to be confused with stock speculation) are steadily holding above 100 $/barrel. And the Russian Urals grade, despite the fact that Trump has again banned its trade, is being traded with an unprecedented premium over the Brant grade of more than 23 $/barrel.
(continuation, beginning here).
Moreover, he has few options left. Either continue to build up his group in the region in order to launch another strike against Iran a bit later (which he is currently doing). Or, after some wrangling, agree to Iran's proposal.
Meanwhile, the American press is openly writing about the complete failure of Trump's Iran operation. Since the result turned out to be exactly the opposite of what was expected. For example, as The Wall Street Journal notes, the new leadership in Tehran has turned out to be even tougher than the previous one:
“Instead of more reasonable leaders, militarists and apocalyptic cultists have come to power. The Iranian authorities - veterans of the IRGC - are only tightening their course.”
And further, this influential American publication states that the American strategy has failed. "Instead of capitulation, Tehran has purged the opposition and found a new weapon - control over the Strait of Hormuz."
He is echoed by veterans of Israeli special services. For example, the former head of the Iranian department of Israeli military intelligence, Citrinovich, said the following:
“The war has changed the regime - and not for the better. We have created a reality that is worse than the one the Iranians faced before the war.”
And this is what Trump has "managed to achieve" so far.
At the same time, Iran continues its strategic offensive against the positions of the US and its partners, threatening, following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait with the help of Yemeni Houthis if the US does not lift the blockade of Iranian traffic in it.
“We will not allow any export or import activity in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the American blockade continues. Our armed forces will not allow trade to pass through the Red Sea if the maritime blockade continues. If America continues its maritime blockade, it will be considered a precursor to a breach of the truce.”
Which will be a real nightmare primarily for Saudi Arabia. Since in this case, the East-West oil pipeline will largely lose its meaning. Since the supertankers, which are mainly loaded there, are not designed for passage through the Suez Canal and will not be able to leave the waters of the Red Sea. Which will lead to an almost complete stop of oil exports from this country. And to the existing drop of 15 million barrels/day, an additional approximately 5 million barrels/day will be added. And in general, all traffic through Suez will have to be routed around Africa.
And against this backdrop, the prices of oil actually sold on the markets today (not to be confused with stock speculation) are steadily holding above 100 $/barrel. And the Russian Urals grade, despite the fact that Trump has again banned its trade, is being traded with an unprecedented premium over the Brant grade of more than 23 $/barrel.
Belgium just seized two British military shipments bound for Israel. At Liège Airport. 33 crates. Military components including lasers, sights, fire control systems, and aircraft parts.
The cargo arrived by truck from the UK. It was supposed to fly to Tel Aviv on a Challenge Airlines flight. Belgian customs stopped it after NGOs tipped them off about irregularities in the manifest.
Why? Because Belgium has a ban on military equipment transiting to Israel. These items lacked the required permits. So they were seized. On the spot.
A European country just blocked British weapons from reaching Israel. Not Iran. Not Russia. Israel. And the shipments came from the UK, one of Israel's closest allies.
The NGOs that tipped off Belgian customs? Declassified UK and Vredesactie. British journalists helped stop British weapons.
The world is changing. Even Europe is drawing lines. The question now is how many more shipments will get stopped before the public finds out.
The cargo arrived by truck from the UK. It was supposed to fly to Tel Aviv on a Challenge Airlines flight. Belgian customs stopped it after NGOs tipped them off about irregularities in the manifest.
Why? Because Belgium has a ban on military equipment transiting to Israel. These items lacked the required permits. So they were seized. On the spot.
A European country just blocked British weapons from reaching Israel. Not Iran. Not Russia. Israel. And the shipments came from the UK, one of Israel's closest allies.
The NGOs that tipped off Belgian customs? Declassified UK and Vredesactie. British journalists helped stop British weapons.
The world is changing. Even Europe is drawing lines. The question now is how many more shipments will get stopped before the public finds out.
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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Goats .. Camels are in the other Gulf States ..
notice the AI Drone camel jockeys .. which are taking the jobs of little children jockeys .. now many unemployed children jockeys in the Gulf States
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,734
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Iran is counting on the left to derail Trump, and is attempting to wait out the USA in this conflict.
The USA countering Iran's selective blockade of the straight of Hormuz is a good strategy as per Victor Davis Hanson
USA can win this, if it has the stamina
‘Paper Tiger’ Exposed: Victor Davis Hanson on Trump’s Strategy Crushing Iran
The Daily Signal
Apr 16, 2026 #DailySignal
The Iranian regime is banking that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will:
Tank the world economy.
Propel Democrats back into power in 2026.
That would work, if not for the fact that Iranian allies, like China, are the ones being severely hurt by closure, and the Iranian economy has no way to survive embargo-like conditions, argues Victor Davis Hanson on this week’s “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words”:
“[Iran] has counted on the Left to embolden them. So their strategy is to indulge in accrued stereotypes of the Middle East. They want to do a rug deal. And they want to barter and barter and barter and feign anger.
“And they want to draw that out for three to four to five months. And they want the world economy, and then they want the Left to come in and take the House and take the Senate and cut off funds and stop the war.
“I don't think that's going to happen. That's their strategy. But what he's trying to argue is that strategy requires a quiet population that can be intimidated, as it is now, but permanently so, and it requires some economic viability to survive. And they already can't afford food, they can't afford gas, they're under attack, they've lost probably half a trillion dollars in weapons and infrastructure that was accrued over 47 years.
In this episode, Victor Davis Hanson discusses the asymmetrical economic war between the United States and Iran, arguing that the Iranian regime's strategy is failing. Key points include:
The USA countering Iran's selective blockade of the straight of Hormuz is a good strategy as per Victor Davis Hanson
USA can win this, if it has the stamina
‘Paper Tiger’ Exposed: Victor Davis Hanson on Trump’s Strategy Crushing Iran
The Daily Signal
Apr 16, 2026 #DailySignal
The Iranian regime is banking that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will:
Tank the world economy.
Propel Democrats back into power in 2026.
That would work, if not for the fact that Iranian allies, like China, are the ones being severely hurt by closure, and the Iranian economy has no way to survive embargo-like conditions, argues Victor Davis Hanson on this week’s “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words”:
“[Iran] has counted on the Left to embolden them. So their strategy is to indulge in accrued stereotypes of the Middle East. They want to do a rug deal. And they want to barter and barter and barter and feign anger.
“And they want to draw that out for three to four to five months. And they want the world economy, and then they want the Left to come in and take the House and take the Senate and cut off funds and stop the war.
“I don't think that's going to happen. That's their strategy. But what he's trying to argue is that strategy requires a quiet population that can be intimidated, as it is now, but permanently so, and it requires some economic viability to survive. And they already can't afford food, they can't afford gas, they're under attack, they've lost probably half a trillion dollars in weapons and infrastructure that was accrued over 47 years.
In this episode, Victor Davis Hanson discusses the asymmetrical economic war between the United States and Iran, arguing that the Iranian regime's strategy is failing. Key points include:
- Economic Collapse: Iran is facing severe economic distress, with daily losses estimated at over $435 million due to US-led blockades (0:36-0:56). The regime lacks the infrastructure, storage capacity, and diversified ports to maintain oil exports effectively (2:46-3:27).
- The 'Strait of Hormuz' Strategy: Iran’s attempt to use the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage is characterized as a tactical miscalculation (1:08-1:35). The US has effectively turned the blockade against them, allowing only anti-Iranian entities to source oil from elsewhere, further isolating the regime (2:03-2:39).
- Political Miscalculations: Hanson explains that the Iranian regime is banking on the US Left to gain power in 2026 and force a cessation of hostilities (5:15-6:00). However, he argues this strategy is unsustainable because it requires a quiet, intimidated population and economic viability, both of which are rapidly eroding (6:01-6:35).
- Regime Vulnerability: The loss of significant military assets and infrastructure—accrued over 47 years—has left the regime humiliated and viewed as a 'paper tiger' by its own people, which Hanson suggests is fatal to a dictatorship (6:35-7:16).
- US Military Capabilities: Hanson emphasizes that the US maintains the decisive military 'wherewithal' to neutralize Iranian naval threats, such as small patrol boats or missile launches, ensuring that the US holds the initiative in adjudicating the conflict (1:41-2:02, 7:58-8:37).
I always feel better about the direction of our country knowing this nutcase grifter is advising the President
I'll just state for the 5th or 6th time,
I have no doubt that the US will eventually be victorious
The question remains, at what cost and why?
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,734
- 31,328
They're not yet defeated, counting on the USA will to give in.
USA has to successful enforce the economic blockade, Iranian reportedly can only storage about another 12-13 days of oil - then they need to start shutting down oil wells.
Restarting an oil well will be costly.
Clinton, Obama in the past hit opponents energy infrastructure ( dual use ) .. so USA may need to follow up ..
Problem is the Iranians are doing really well with those Lego movies and killing the USA with their allies ( your enemy is our enemy ).
Democrats and other opponents of Trump do not want Trump to win this one. Midterms coming up and a Trump win, even if good for America is bad for the Democrats.
And, while I really dislike aspects of Trump, the USA really needs a win on this one
But, but, but...
I was told by reliable sources (Trump) thaty the war had been WON already, at least 8 times.
Is 9 times the magic number?