Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

Interesting
@mat200 would know more than I about hardware and tactics but it sounds like Iran is far from being backwards militarily



Evolution of tactics, lessons from Russia coming in from Putin also are being considered. ( China gets to learn from all of this on the cheap )

my guess is that smaller short and medium systems which can hide in the mountain are being used.

Probably pop out units from shelter for short period of times to get hits, and then run the back to shelter.

Tons of air targets for Iran to ambush this way.

Helicopters flying so low can be hit by manpads - Ukraine hit a number of Russian Helicopters during the first days of the Special Military Operation.

Iran wins by showing Trump's "we've won" messaging is BS

Trump setup himself for this, instead of stating the fight isn't over - he boosted the success rate as too high. He'll pay a political price imho for this.

Those of us who understand know in a fight both sides will be bloodied.

Clearly USA, Israel air defense could have been better .. and event he best is never 100%
 
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I guarantee you the backwoods militia in the US would get slaughtered against this apparent Iran equivalent that appears stronger than the military the US wiped out...
 
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“The American ppl are very much like the children of a Mafia boss who do not know what their father does for a living & don’t want to know, but then they wonder why someone just threw a firebomb thru the living room window. This is exactly who we are”




*Yes, THE Serpico


.. and the kids are in the street protesting against the mob, and demanding that their dad and mob friends distribute the vast wealth to those in need around their neighborhood imagining that there's plenty of money to go around, as they see food and expensive things in their house.
 
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Iran Just Shot Down Two US Jets – War Enters Deadly New Phase
Preston Stewart



 

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Winning the Narrative War? Clarify America’s Goals on Iran, Air Power, and No Ground War | VDH
The Daily Signal

Apr 3, 2026 Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words
Within the first 30 days of the conflict in Iran, the United States and Israel have achieved military successes not previously seen in modern warfare: a country, with the population of Texas, has had its entire navy and air force decimated within a month.

Battlefield wins mean nothing if you can’t sell the war back home.
Here’s how President Donald Trump can make the political reality equal to the military reality, which is a near success.




In this video, Victor Davis Hanson discusses the current military and political landscape of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. He argues that while the military campaign has been overwhelmingly successful, there is a disconnect between this reality and the political narrative being presented.

Key takeaways from the discussion:

  • Unprecedented Military Success (0:00-2:32): Hanson describes a 30-day campaign where the U.S. and Israel have achieved near-total air supremacy, effectively neutralizing Iran's air force, navy, and air defense systems.
  • Resupply Challenges (3:47-5:31): The regime's ability to resupply is severely hampered as traditional transport methods have been destroyed, forcing them to rely on risky, clandestine routes. The massive financial cost of these lost assets creates further internal strain.
  • The Case for Regime Change (8:23-9:37): While regime change was not the initial primary objective, Hanson suggests it could emerge as a "collateral dividend." He highlights the presence of a sizable, dissident pro-American population in Iran as a key factor that differentiates this situation from past conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan.
  • Strategic Messaging (6:04-8:23): Hanson advises that official messaging should avoid over-specifying percentages of destruction (which can be difficult to verify) and instead focus on the scale of the conflict and the ongoing nature of the operation against a formidable adversary.
  • No Ground War (10:32-11:20): He clarifies that a ground war is not the desired outcome and remains synonymous with past misadventures, though keeping it as a potential option can serve the broader strategic objectives.
 
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Retired US Army General calls the Iran war the greatest geopolitical disaster in the history of America.
He confirms Iran is an impenetrable fortress and Trump has stuck his hand in a hornets nest with no way out. The Pentagon is panicking.

 
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James Webb is the real deal. He isnt a gossip type
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I just heard from a source very close to top of the White House that, following today’s shootdown of an F-15, an A-10, and the successful hits on multiple helicopters and other aircraft, the WH is choosing further escalation, including US troops on the ground. This would be madness. I truly hope that someone in the Pentagon or elsewhere can prevent this from happening. If anything was proven today, it’s that Iranian AD is still very capable and very intact.

Any US ground operation will be heavily reliant on helicopters and other slow-moving airframes. Despite the assertions of both the Pentagon and POTUS, it is crystal clear that we have not reduced Iranian AD to the point where a ground operation is even a remotely wise decision. Let alone potentially inserting by air and then being exclusively reliant on an air corridor for things such as resupply and CASEVAC. History is replete with examples where this reliance has been disastrous.

Further, the hard part would be after troops were on the objective. Our lack of manpower leaves little room for maneuver, and once static (which would be required), Americans will become a stationary target for the entire inventory of Iranian indirect fire capabilities on Iranian soil, and it is a recipe for failure.


Simply put, this is not an existential war for the US's survival. It’s a war of choice that should never have happened in the first place, and POTUS should be finding a way out, rather than clumsily and recklessly sacrificing America’s finest.