Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
Arjun
IPCT Contributor
But they still have their brains. They have rocks, Internet, and all sorts of creative ways to threaten us unfortunately.
And apparently enough weapons to target whatever they want....
At first I thought these were opposition organized protests, guess not
As I’ve said a number of times, and I’ll say again for those that can’t wait to say “see we won” as if that means anything - I have no doubt that the US will eventually win a decisive military victory assuming we put enough boots, tanks, etc on the battlefield, or resort to letting Israel drop a nuke. But it will take a lot longer than most thought.
That said, Trump kicked a hornets nest he was unprepared for and had no business kicking. Iran hasn’t been a direct threat to the US, and the Israelis have propagated the nuke lie (“they’ll have the bomb in a few weeks”) for 35 years. Trumps own Intelligence agencies told him that was false.
In the meantime Iran has greatly improved missles and targeting capabilities and is launching precision weapons almost at will after taking out much of the US/Israeli tracking radars. And 15 days later we do not have air supremacy.
I think many will be surprised at the damage to US installations in the region and to Israel.
That said, Trump kicked a hornets nest he was unprepared for and had no business kicking. Iran hasn’t been a direct threat to the US, and the Israelis have propagated the nuke lie (“they’ll have the bomb in a few weeks”) for 35 years. Trumps own Intelligence agencies told him that was false.
In the meantime Iran has greatly improved missles and targeting capabilities and is launching precision weapons almost at will after taking out much of the US/Israeli tracking radars. And 15 days later we do not have air supremacy.
I think many will be surprised at the damage to US installations in the region and to Israel.
Parley
Known around here
Their Air Force and Navy have been wiped out. Most of the missiles but not all. Same with the drones. People in Iran are helping to pinpoint the bad guys and some of their arm stashes. This will still take some more time.
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,132
- 30,408
The REAL Reason Iran Is Winning The War
The Diary Of A CEO Clips
Mar 14, 2026 #thediaryofaceo #doac
White House war advisor Robert Pape reveals why Iran is winning the escalation war against America despite having a fraction of the military power. In a piece published in Foreign Affairs just hours before this conversation, he explains how Iran has shifted from direct missile strikes against Israel to a strategy of horizontal escalation, using precision drones to hit hotels, airports, and economic targets across Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar in order to break the US-led coalition from the inside.
He breaks down why this strategy is working, with hundreds of thousands of Western expats evacuating the Gulf, tourism revenues collapsing across the region, and coalition governments facing pressure from their own populations to kick American forces out. He reveals that Russia is now providing targeting intelligence to Iran, the same way America provides targeting intelligence to Ukraine, and explains why Trump was on the phone with Putin just before his press conference trying to negotiate a deal.
Discover:
• Why a White House war advisor says Iran is winning the escalation war
• How Iran is using precision drones to break the US coalition from the inside
• Why Russia is providing targeting intelligence to help Iran hit ships and cities
• The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and why it threatens global oil prices
• Why Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf may never fully recover
• The historical pattern showing how America loses every long war it fights
• Why this is heading toward an inflation crisis that threatens Trump politically
The Diary Of A CEO Clips
Mar 14, 2026 #thediaryofaceo #doac
White House war advisor Robert Pape reveals why Iran is winning the escalation war against America despite having a fraction of the military power. In a piece published in Foreign Affairs just hours before this conversation, he explains how Iran has shifted from direct missile strikes against Israel to a strategy of horizontal escalation, using precision drones to hit hotels, airports, and economic targets across Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar in order to break the US-led coalition from the inside.
He breaks down why this strategy is working, with hundreds of thousands of Western expats evacuating the Gulf, tourism revenues collapsing across the region, and coalition governments facing pressure from their own populations to kick American forces out. He reveals that Russia is now providing targeting intelligence to Iran, the same way America provides targeting intelligence to Ukraine, and explains why Trump was on the phone with Putin just before his press conference trying to negotiate a deal.
Discover:
• Why a White House war advisor says Iran is winning the escalation war
• How Iran is using precision drones to break the US coalition from the inside
• Why Russia is providing targeting intelligence to help Iran hit ships and cities
• The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and why it threatens global oil prices
• Why Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf may never fully recover
• The historical pattern showing how America loses every long war it fights
• Why this is heading toward an inflation crisis that threatens Trump politically
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,132
- 30,408
The REAL Reason US Troops Are Going Into Iran
The Diary Of A CEO Clips
2.04M subscribers
Mar 13, 2026 #thediaryofaceo #doac
White House war advisor Robert Pape reveals why President Trump is now trapped in an escalation cycle in Iran with no good way out. Drawing on 20 years of war simulations and three decades advising every White House since 9/11, he explains the three-stage "smart bomb trap" that has historically pulled America into prolonged conflicts, and why he gives a 75% probability that US ground troops will be deployed into Iran.
He breaks down the Hobbesian choice Trump now faces: accept a political loss by pulling back now, or double down and risk becoming the next Lyndon Johnson, whose presidency was destroyed by the Vietnam escalation. He reveals that Iran had offered Trump a deal better than the Obama deal on the Friday before the bombing campaign began, and that Trump chose regime change instead.
He explains why Israel killed the Iranian negotiators while Trump was actively making a deal, why Marco Rubio appeared to accidentally reveal that the US attacked because Israel was about to attack first, and why Iran is now almost certainly racing to build multiple nuclear weapons following the North Korea playbook. He warns that the dispersed enriched material could be hidden in rooms no bigger than a living room, and that the hunt for it is what will pull American soldiers onto Iranian soil.
Discover:
• Why a White House war advisor says Trump is trapped with no golden off-ramp
• The 75% probability prediction for US ground troops in Iran
• Why Iran had a better deal than the Obama deal on the table before the bombing
• How Israel killed the negotiators while Trump was making a deal
• The Vietnam parallel and why this escalation trap has happened before
• Why Iran is likely following the North Korea nuclear playbook right now
• What happens at stage three and why it mirrors Vietnam and Afghanistan
The Diary Of A CEO Clips
2.04M subscribers
Mar 13, 2026 #thediaryofaceo #doac
White House war advisor Robert Pape reveals why President Trump is now trapped in an escalation cycle in Iran with no good way out. Drawing on 20 years of war simulations and three decades advising every White House since 9/11, he explains the three-stage "smart bomb trap" that has historically pulled America into prolonged conflicts, and why he gives a 75% probability that US ground troops will be deployed into Iran.
He breaks down the Hobbesian choice Trump now faces: accept a political loss by pulling back now, or double down and risk becoming the next Lyndon Johnson, whose presidency was destroyed by the Vietnam escalation. He reveals that Iran had offered Trump a deal better than the Obama deal on the Friday before the bombing campaign began, and that Trump chose regime change instead.
He explains why Israel killed the Iranian negotiators while Trump was actively making a deal, why Marco Rubio appeared to accidentally reveal that the US attacked because Israel was about to attack first, and why Iran is now almost certainly racing to build multiple nuclear weapons following the North Korea playbook. He warns that the dispersed enriched material could be hidden in rooms no bigger than a living room, and that the hunt for it is what will pull American soldiers onto Iranian soil.
Discover:
• Why a White House war advisor says Trump is trapped with no golden off-ramp
• The 75% probability prediction for US ground troops in Iran
• Why Iran had a better deal than the Obama deal on the table before the bombing
• How Israel killed the negotiators while Trump was making a deal
• The Vietnam parallel and why this escalation trap has happened before
• Why Iran is likely following the North Korea nuclear playbook right now
• What happens at stage three and why it mirrors Vietnam and Afghanistan
Oceanslider
Known around here
Oceanslider
Known around here
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,132
- 30,408
USA, Trump will need to double down for a win if necessary.
If the USA comes out of this as a loser to Iran, not gonna be a good future for US.
The real challenge is the theory that the USA is unable to fight longer term wars, and USA's opponents can win by outlasting the USA.
Iran, with the large population wanting to kick the Regime out, there could actually be a good chance that the IRGC can be removed
Israel and others do not want to see T.A.C.O.
If the USA comes out of this as a loser to Iran, not gonna be a good future for US.
The real challenge is the theory that the USA is unable to fight longer term wars, and USA's opponents can win by outlasting the USA.
Iran, with the large population wanting to kick the Regime out, there could actually be a good chance that the IRGC can be removed
Israel and others do not want to see T.A.C.O.
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 18,132
- 30,408
Rush Job: The Iran War’s Two Ticking Clocks
William Spaniel
Mar 14, 2026
The story of the Iran War consists of two ticking clocks: one that started before the United States fired the first shots, and another that began immediately afterward. Today's video looks at the time pressure the United States had to initiate the conflict while there was still protestor momentum in the country. This simultaneously explains the disjointed war plan while raising questions about whether the war was a good idea from the outset. We then examine the race between U.S. stockpiles and the Iranian government's survival.
0:00 Two Ticking Clocks of War
0:20 The Time Limit on Iranian Protests
3:42 Problems with Rushing to War
6:15 A Better Debate about the War
8:42 Dwindling U.S. Stockpiles
11:26 Chances of Regime Change
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
William Spaniel
Mar 14, 2026
The story of the Iran War consists of two ticking clocks: one that started before the United States fired the first shots, and another that began immediately afterward. Today's video looks at the time pressure the United States had to initiate the conflict while there was still protestor momentum in the country. This simultaneously explains the disjointed war plan while raising questions about whether the war was a good idea from the outset. We then examine the race between U.S. stockpiles and the Iranian government's survival.
0:00 Two Ticking Clocks of War
0:20 The Time Limit on Iranian Protests
3:42 Problems with Rushing to War
6:15 A Better Debate about the War
8:42 Dwindling U.S. Stockpiles
11:26 Chances of Regime Change
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and NATO visual information does not imply or constitute an endorsement.
Seven Tankers Down or Damaged: A Brutal Week for U.S. Air Power in the Middle East
Rising tensions in the Middle East have now reached a point where even the logistics backbone of U.S. air operations is coming under fire. According to a
guessingheadlights.com