bigredfish
Known around here
We’ll be killing people for Oil at the behest of our overlords in Israel for a decade. Not even close to over.
Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?
- Thread starter Sybertiger
- Start date
bigredfish
Known around here
Not to downplay what the Germans did in WWII, but they may have been onto something.
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
All airlines starting to cut back on flights
Wife just priced ticket RT to Elmira for Thanksgiving.
Last year RT $250
1 leg this year $350
Wife just priced ticket RT to Elmira for Thanksgiving.
Last year RT $250
1 leg this year $350
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
Three Options: Only One Survives a Boardroom
Strip the politics AND read this the way a global crisis management office reads it, because this is the actual decision matrix in front of every operator with tonnage in the Gulf right now. Retweet and bookmark this.
1- . Pay Iran's 1% toll, transit under IRGC protection following the newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority permit system, AND get your people and assets out while you can. America will NOT strike commercial ships. Your exposure is sanctions paperwork, not missiles.
2- . Pretend the strait is "OPEN" because a president posted the word, pay America's 20% toll, AND sail without Iranian permission through waters where the IRGC has struck ship after ship for exactly that. You are trading a 1% fee for a 20% fee PLUS the missile risk PLUS cancelled insurance PLUS the duty of care liability when a drone finds your bridge on the ship. No board on earth signs that memo.
3- . Do nothing. Sit at anchor in the Gulf burning $25,000 to $100,000 a day in operating costs AND demurrage, but your crew is safe, your hull is safe, AND your cargo is intact.
From a strictly business standpoint the three collapse into two.
Stay put AND wait for calm, OR follow Iran's directions as the only viable, reduced-risk way out.
Option two does not exist commercially, because no duty-of-care framework, no insurer AND no general counsel will bless a route where the discount is negative AND the downside is a burning ship on the evening news.
AND the data already confirms the choice being made.
Of the 14 vessels that moved through the strait yesterday, the traffic that sailed was overwhelmingly running Iran's coastal corridor under Iran's rules. The market voted before the pundits finished arguing.
Here is what almost nobody has understood yet.
Sovereignty over a waterway is not decided by who tweets "OPEN" in capital letters. It is decided by whose RULES the ships actually follow. Trump's 20% toll did not challenge Iran's control of Hormuz. It made Iran's 1% the bargain of the century, AND every CFO on earth can do that arithmetic in their head.
Washington set out to price Iran out of the strait AND instead priced itself out of the boardroom.
Strip the politics AND read this the way a global crisis management office reads it, because this is the actual decision matrix in front of every operator with tonnage in the Gulf right now. Retweet and bookmark this.
1- . Pay Iran's 1% toll, transit under IRGC protection following the newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority permit system, AND get your people and assets out while you can. America will NOT strike commercial ships. Your exposure is sanctions paperwork, not missiles.
2- . Pretend the strait is "OPEN" because a president posted the word, pay America's 20% toll, AND sail without Iranian permission through waters where the IRGC has struck ship after ship for exactly that. You are trading a 1% fee for a 20% fee PLUS the missile risk PLUS cancelled insurance PLUS the duty of care liability when a drone finds your bridge on the ship. No board on earth signs that memo.
3- . Do nothing. Sit at anchor in the Gulf burning $25,000 to $100,000 a day in operating costs AND demurrage, but your crew is safe, your hull is safe, AND your cargo is intact.
From a strictly business standpoint the three collapse into two.
Stay put AND wait for calm, OR follow Iran's directions as the only viable, reduced-risk way out.
Option two does not exist commercially, because no duty-of-care framework, no insurer AND no general counsel will bless a route where the discount is negative AND the downside is a burning ship on the evening news.
AND the data already confirms the choice being made.
Of the 14 vessels that moved through the strait yesterday, the traffic that sailed was overwhelmingly running Iran's coastal corridor under Iran's rules. The market voted before the pundits finished arguing.
Here is what almost nobody has understood yet.
Sovereignty over a waterway is not decided by who tweets "OPEN" in capital letters. It is decided by whose RULES the ships actually follow. Trump's 20% toll did not challenge Iran's control of Hormuz. It made Iran's 1% the bargain of the century, AND every CFO on earth can do that arithmetic in their head.
Washington set out to price Iran out of the strait AND instead priced itself out of the boardroom.