Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

[bigredfish]

There are massive interconnections which lay under the basic surface information.

Questions to ask
1) USA runs deficits, and those are funded by USA treasuries ( bonds ) .. who buys much of this?
2) USA allies in the Gulf .. sell Oil and Other oil related commodities in US Dollars .. what do they do with their surplus dollars?
3) Japan, and the yen and "carry trade" .. how does the Yen and Carry trade impact the USA and global economy?
4) Where is all this money coming from that are going into the USA AI infrastructure spending?
5) What happens if Japan can not get the oil they need?
6) What happens when US Gulf allies can not sell they Oil they need to sell?
7) What happens when cheap fertilizer stops getting out of the Gulf?
8) Who starts to starve? What will they do? What is the impact?


It gets complex quickly .. basically the US is lying when they state Hormuz does not matter. It does, and it affects the USA.

Three other things

US is “energy independent” but we still import oil. Lots. From Canada, Mexico, and now Venezuela.
We are #1 in “production”



Oil is a global commmodity. We don’t reserve it (outside of the SPR) for just US


We’ve sucked and are now near bottom of the SPR. So they’re lying when they tell you the Strait is open

 

[bigredfish]

20 million barrels per day before the war
4 million or so now, maybe

 

[bigredfish]

 

[bigredfish]

 

[bigredfish]

Probably nothing..

*In fairness and full disclosure, it’s an up and coming drone maker. Not a huge Def manufacturer per se

 

[wrapter]

Interesting tactics. A guy with a stinger/manpads won't know where to look at a high flying jet with its lights switched off but drones flying in formation will give him cues as to where to aim, the stinger will give a audible lock when it finds a heat source from a jet engine.

 

[mat200]

Iran War Redux: How Does This Thing End?
U.S. Naval Institute



This episode of the Proceedings Podcast (0:05-33:51) features a discussion between host Bill Hamblet and retired Navy Vice Admiral John Miller regarding the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, now in its sixth month (0:42-1:04).

Key takeaways from the discussion:

• The Stagnant Conflict: Admiral Miller assesses that the military campaign has stalled due to repeated, unsuccessful attempts at ceasefires and negotiations (2:41-5:30). He notes that while the initial phase achieved air superiority, the subsequent "on-again, off-again" diplomatic cycles have given Iran room to recover and continue regional aggression (4:04-6:11).
• The Strait of Hormuz and Maritime Security: A central theme is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Miller argues that guaranteeing free transit in international straits is a fundamental US Navy mission (11:37-12:40). He emphasizes that current Iranian-Omani rumors of toll-based management are violations of international law (UNCLOS) and must not be accepted by the global community (18:08-20:50).
• The Houthi Factor: The conflict is widening as Iranian proxies, including the Houthis, threaten additional maritime chokepoints like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (6:11-6:57, 25:23-26:23).
• Prognosis and Strategy: Miller suggests that to achieve a lasting victory, the US must move away from the current cycle of intermittent strikes. He recommends a more robust, sustained military and economic strategy, combined with an international diplomatic effort to isolate the regime and cut off its funding sources (29:10-32:35).

 

[bigredfish]

Welp

 

[wrapter]

 

[mat200]

 

[bigredfish]

Oh ok

 

[mat200]

Numerous Israeli settlers in the West Bank are what i would call Jewish extremist

Really problematic

 

[bigredfish]

Numerous Israeli settlers in the West Bank are what i would call Jewish extremist

Really problematic

And yet the authorities allow it and politicians on camera encourage it...

Its a sick fucking society

 

[bigredfish]

I know its easier to ignore it, but there's apparently still a war going on in the Middle East...

 

[bigredfish]

Of course Oil is down …

 

[bigredfish]

 

[wrapter]

 

[wrapter]

 

[wrapter]

 

[bigredfish]