'Fall of Iranian regime real possibility,' assessment in Israel and US ‘strengthening’
i24 News ^ | March 17, 2026 | Guy Azriel
Senior Israeli sources told i24NEWS that Ali Larijani had been designated “target number one” after Iran’s Supreme Leader, with intensive intelligence efforts focused on tracking his movements ahead of his assassination.
According to the sources, Larijani operated like a “high-value fugitive,” frequently moving between safe houses and never remaining in one location for long.
Real-time intelligence updates eventually enabled Israeli decision-makers to act, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and IDF Chief of Staff Zamir reportedly giving immediate approval for the strike once the opportunity emerged.
A senior Israeli diplomatic official told i24NEWS that assessments in both Israel and the United States increasingly view the potential collapse of the Iranian regime as a “real possibility,” a perception strengthened following the killings of Larijani and the Basij commander in Israeli Air Force strikes.
The developments come amid ongoing debate over whether anti-regime protests could re-emerge inside Iran. Israeli officials dismissed a recent The Washington Post report claiming that Israeli representatives warned U.S. diplomats protesters would be “slaughtered” if they took to the streets, calling the report “complete nonsense.”
Security officials added that Iran’s internal security structure has been significantly weakened. They said the Basij militia is no longer as capable as it was months ago, while the intelligence ministry—responsible for monitoring and suppressing civilian organization—has also sustained major damage.
According to these officials, Israel’s strategy is to systematically degrade the Basij’s operational capacity by targeting commanders, dismantling infrastructure, and eliminating logistical support. This includes aerial strikes on street checkpoints, which officials say serve not only a tactical purpose but also a psychological one.
“The damage is not absolute,” one official said, “but it is real—and it is growing and continuing.”
