Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

This video (0:00 - 40:54) explores the potential for a 'forever war' between the United States and Iran following a series of military escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and Israel. Experts discuss the risks of the conflict becoming a long-term quagmire similar to the Iraq War.

Key Discussions:

  • The Iran Situation: (0:05 - 1:56) President Trump initially threatened to destroy Iranian energy infrastructure but paused for five days following negotiations. Iran retaliated with threats against US allies in the region. US forces have struck nuclear facilities in Natans (3:21) and Tehran University (3:52).
  • Attack on Diego Garcia: (1:03 - 15:13) Tom Cotterill explains that Iran fired two Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missiles at the British base in Diego Garcia. One failed, and the other was intercepted by a US destroyer (9:52). This highlights the missile threat to Europe and UK bases.
  • Ground Invasion & Quagmire Risks: (19:10 - 28:05) Colonel Peter Mansoor (ret.) warns that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a 'forever mission' requiring a permanent military presence (0:11, 20:17). He analyzes the difficulties of seizing Kharg Island (21:23) or other mainland bases, noting the limited manpower of the deployed US Marines (32:48).
  • Nuclear Enrichment & Special Raids: (26:46 - 28:23) Discussions cover the high-risk option of using special forces to seize enriched uranium from underground facilities (27:23).



Europe fears after Iran fires ICBM & how US Marines could reopen the Strait of Hormuz
The Telegraph

 
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Does not sound like the war is close to a wrap up yet ..

 
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seems like a good summary ..

In this video, Victor Davis Hanson analyzes the current standoff between the United States/Israel and Iran, arguing that while Iran has suffered severe tactical losses, a strategic victory has not yet been achieved. He compares the situation to historical scenarios where winning battles didn't lead to winning the war.

Key Points:

Iran's Tactical Inertia: Hanson notes that Iran's navy is nonexistent, the air force is gone, and missile defenses are inactive (0:08 - 1:47).
Strategic Trap: Like Napoleon in Russia or the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, tactical success does not guarantee a strategic resolution without a plan for what comes next (3:09 - 4:18).
Iran's Strategy: The Iranian regime believes it can outlast the Trump administration by relying on its oil revenue to rebuild its military and nuclear capabilities once international pressure eases (4:30 - 6:49).
Trump's Agenda: The current US goal is to destroy Iran's capability to launch missiles, its air force, navy, and nuclear program, but the ultimate goal of regime change remains difficult without ground troops (6:50 - 10:00).

Iran’s Strategy: Outlast Trump at Any Cost | Victor Davis Hanson
The Daily Signal
and Victor Davis Hanson

 
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