Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
Awkward..
I recall they said the opposite just a week ago?
I recall they said the opposite just a week ago?
These two posts I copy here are not about politics per se, they demonstrate that the numbers we're being told about the economy are fake.
This presents a problem for businesses to make sound decisions.
This presents a problem for businesses to make sound decisions.
easy come, easy go, but overall, maybe it's good news for the US/USD...
Why Trump's pick for Fed chair is causing gold and silver to tumble from records
Why Trump's pick for Fed chair is causing gold and silver to tumble from records
I asked my friend to sell the silver yesterday, US's Thursday middle night. Or else drop 26%
today
todayI asked my friend to sell the silver yesterday, US's Thursday middle night. Or else drop 26%
I was planning on buying more silver today... shocked when I seen what was going on... took a beating on what I already have
It was manipulated. Just like Gold.
Like I said in my post the day before, I knew something smelled in that final runup and sold.
Lots of factors but the big one being the $dollar is losing reserve status. There will be many games like Friday played out in the coming months
There’s a reason Trump announced a plan to overhaul the monetary system to crypto the other day and why he’s meeting with crypto tech bro’s Monday.
We’re all in for a very bumpy ride
Like I said in my post the day before, I knew something smelled in that final runup and sold.
Lots of factors but the big one being the $dollar is losing reserve status. There will be many games like Friday played out in the coming months
There’s a reason Trump announced a plan to overhaul the monetary system to crypto the other day and why he’s meeting with crypto tech bro’s Monday.
We’re all in for a very bumpy ride
The AI fairy tale is next
"The AI industry based almost entirely on circular financing and off book “revenue” reminds me how important the role of psychology plays in investing."
Great analysis IMHO
"The AI industry based almost entirely on circular financing and off book “revenue” reminds me how important the role of psychology plays in investing."
Great analysis IMHO
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The smartest people in the world are selling their companies at the exact same time
SpaceX. OpenAI. Databricks. Anthropic. All rushing to IPO in 2026.
Combined valuation: over $2.5 TRILLION
They're not selling because they need money. They're selling because they see something coming.
The last two times this happened? 2000 and 2021. NASDAQ crashed 78%. 95% of IPO investors lost everything.
Something satisfying about watching this pattern repeat in real time...The Fed just started printing $40 billion per month. Not next quarter. Already happening. That's $480 billion this year being pumped into a banking system that's quietly cracking.
Bank reserves hit a 4 year low. The Fed's emergency lending window hit record usage. Banks were so low on cash they had to borrow emergency money at year end. Stress signal. Fed panicked. Started the printers.
But here's the part that actually matters for your portfolio: When the Fed prints, asset prices go up. Stocks rally. Valuations go insane. And smart money sees the perfect window to exit. That's exactly what's happening right now.
SpaceX preparing a trillion dollar IPO. That's 60x their estimated revenue. Bigger than Indonesia's entire economy. Largest IPO in history.
OpenAI wants a trillion dollar valuation too. Hottest AI company in the world. But if it's such a great long term investment... why are the early investors so eager to sell to you right now?
Databricks at $134 billion. Anthropic pushing $350 billion. All AI. All insane valuations. All rushing to the exit at the same time. Funny how that works.
This pattern has played out twice in 25 years.1999. 457 IPOs in one year. Every company had ".com" in the name. Stocks doubling daily. Companies with zero revenue worth billions. 86% of these IPOs were losing money. Nobody cared. "The internet changes everything. Old rules don't apply."Then NASDAQ dropped 78%. $5 trillion gone. Pets. com, Webvan, eToys... vanished.
2021 Fed printed $4 trillion. Tech went insane. Roblox, Bumble, Rivian, Coinbase. Everyone buying. Rivian raised $12 billion with practically zero revenue. Worth more than Ford and GM combined. Because it was "the next Tesla." You could have just bought Tesla but that's a different story.
By 2023 only 5% of companies that listed were trading above their IPO price. 95% of people who bought IPOs in 2020 and 2021 lost money.The frenzy wasn't coincidentally near the top. It WAS the top.
Here's what most people don't understand about founders and early investors...These are some of the smartest people in the world. They don't sell randomly. They wait for the perfect window. Stock prices high. Investors optimistic. Money flowing. Valuations disconnected from reality because "this time is different."That window is wide open right now.
Problem is... the perfect window is usually right before everything reverses. They're not honoring you by letting you buy their shares. You're their exit liquidity. You give them cash so they can buy another island.
The timeline is actually pretty predictable once you see it.
Stage 1 already happened. Economy showed weakness. Banks needed reserves. Fed cut rates. Fed started printing.
Stage 2 is now. New money flooding in. Stocks rallying hard. Valuations going insane. Everyone feeling like a genius.
Stage 3 is coming. Major IPOs launch. Excitement peaks. Retail buys everything. Music stops.There's a 6 month lockup after IPOs. Founders and early investors legally cannot sell for 6 months after listing. So if SpaceX and OpenAI IPO early to mid 2026... the insider selling wave hits late 2026. Right around midterms. Right when uncertainty peaks.
Presidential cycle data backs this up. Year 2 of a presidential term is historically weak. Pattern has been 90% accurate since 1933. What I find interesting is nobody talks about the basic math. 5,000 stocks already listed in the US. Years of audited returns. Years of proof management does what they say. A new IPO has none of that. No track record. No proof. Just promises and a pitch deck.
Why would that one new stock deserve more attention than the other 5,000? It doesn't. Risk reward is garbage. Insiders know more than you. They're selling for a reason.
Market will probably go higher before it goes lower. Money printing does that. But the smartest people in the world are preparing to sell you their companies at the highest valuations in history.They see something. They're positioning.Whether you see it too is your choice.
WARNING SIGNALS (save this)
:- Multiple trillion dollar IPOs launching
You can track most of these signals manually. Or use something like TradeVision to watch institutional dark pool activity and see when big money starts heading for the exits.
HISTORICAL ACCURACY:- 1999 to 2000: IPO frenzy then 78% crash- 2021: IPO frenzy then 95% of buyers lost money- Presidential year 2: weak markets, 90% accurate since 1933
SpaceX. OpenAI. Databricks. Anthropic. All rushing to IPO in 2026.
Combined valuation: over $2.5 TRILLION
They're not selling because they need money. They're selling because they see something coming.
The last two times this happened? 2000 and 2021. NASDAQ crashed 78%. 95% of IPO investors lost everything.
Something satisfying about watching this pattern repeat in real time...The Fed just started printing $40 billion per month. Not next quarter. Already happening. That's $480 billion this year being pumped into a banking system that's quietly cracking.
Bank reserves hit a 4 year low. The Fed's emergency lending window hit record usage. Banks were so low on cash they had to borrow emergency money at year end. Stress signal. Fed panicked. Started the printers.
But here's the part that actually matters for your portfolio: When the Fed prints, asset prices go up. Stocks rally. Valuations go insane. And smart money sees the perfect window to exit. That's exactly what's happening right now.
SpaceX preparing a trillion dollar IPO. That's 60x their estimated revenue. Bigger than Indonesia's entire economy. Largest IPO in history.
OpenAI wants a trillion dollar valuation too. Hottest AI company in the world. But if it's such a great long term investment... why are the early investors so eager to sell to you right now?
Databricks at $134 billion. Anthropic pushing $350 billion. All AI. All insane valuations. All rushing to the exit at the same time. Funny how that works.
This pattern has played out twice in 25 years.1999. 457 IPOs in one year. Every company had ".com" in the name. Stocks doubling daily. Companies with zero revenue worth billions. 86% of these IPOs were losing money. Nobody cared. "The internet changes everything. Old rules don't apply."Then NASDAQ dropped 78%. $5 trillion gone. Pets. com, Webvan, eToys... vanished.
2021 Fed printed $4 trillion. Tech went insane. Roblox, Bumble, Rivian, Coinbase. Everyone buying. Rivian raised $12 billion with practically zero revenue. Worth more than Ford and GM combined. Because it was "the next Tesla." You could have just bought Tesla but that's a different story.
By 2023 only 5% of companies that listed were trading above their IPO price. 95% of people who bought IPOs in 2020 and 2021 lost money.The frenzy wasn't coincidentally near the top. It WAS the top.
Here's what most people don't understand about founders and early investors...These are some of the smartest people in the world. They don't sell randomly. They wait for the perfect window. Stock prices high. Investors optimistic. Money flowing. Valuations disconnected from reality because "this time is different."That window is wide open right now.
Problem is... the perfect window is usually right before everything reverses. They're not honoring you by letting you buy their shares. You're their exit liquidity. You give them cash so they can buy another island.
The timeline is actually pretty predictable once you see it.
Stage 1 already happened. Economy showed weakness. Banks needed reserves. Fed cut rates. Fed started printing.
Stage 2 is now. New money flooding in. Stocks rallying hard. Valuations going insane. Everyone feeling like a genius.
Stage 3 is coming. Major IPOs launch. Excitement peaks. Retail buys everything. Music stops.There's a 6 month lockup after IPOs. Founders and early investors legally cannot sell for 6 months after listing. So if SpaceX and OpenAI IPO early to mid 2026... the insider selling wave hits late 2026. Right around midterms. Right when uncertainty peaks.
Presidential cycle data backs this up. Year 2 of a presidential term is historically weak. Pattern has been 90% accurate since 1933. What I find interesting is nobody talks about the basic math. 5,000 stocks already listed in the US. Years of audited returns. Years of proof management does what they say. A new IPO has none of that. No track record. No proof. Just promises and a pitch deck.
Why would that one new stock deserve more attention than the other 5,000? It doesn't. Risk reward is garbage. Insiders know more than you. They're selling for a reason.
Market will probably go higher before it goes lower. Money printing does that. But the smartest people in the world are preparing to sell you their companies at the highest valuations in history.They see something. They're positioning.Whether you see it too is your choice.
WARNING SIGNALS (save this)
:- Multiple trillion dollar IPOs launching
- IPOs popping 50 to 100% on day one
- Retail asking "did you get the allocation?"
- ARK and speculative stocks falling while S&P holds
- 6 months post major IPOs (lockup expiring)
- Midterm uncertainty
- Fed signals slowing the printers
You can track most of these signals manually. Or use something like TradeVision to watch institutional dark pool activity and see when big money starts heading for the exits.
HISTORICAL ACCURACY:- 1999 to 2000: IPO frenzy then 78% crash- 2021: IPO frenzy then 95% of buyers lost money- Presidential year 2: weak markets, 90% accurate since 1933
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Layoffs are piling up, heightening worker anxiety. Here are some of the biggest recent job cuts
Layoffs are piling up, heightening worker anxiety. Here are some of the biggest recent job cuts
As layoffs pile up, workers are feeling increasingly anxious about the job market. Economists have said businesses are in a "no-hire, no-fire" standstill as hiring stalls overall.
apnews.com