Money & Economics

But yeah, I'm sure the rest of the numbers showing slowing inflation (PPI and CPI) released the past 2 days are accurate

This won't end well... for you (it will work spectacularly for Trump and some billionaires

Congrats!

All good, no problem

I suppose it could go on forever huh?

Consumer tapping out?

Look at credit card spending… we are maxing out disposable income to pay minimum payments… this is where it gets complicated.

If I was smarter and could legally give financial advice (neither is true) I would advise getting the fuck out of AI stonks FAST… unless you have a 10year+ outlook and can take a 30%-50% loss in the meantime

We’re doomed, Sell everything !

Gold back nudging 4500 and the 10 year bond heading towards 5

Something’s gonna break here before long…

Of course .gov will do the only thing they know. Print more $$$

Which increases debt faster, which raises rates higher, which eats into the budget as interest expense increases.

And unlike your household budget, spending will continue to grow.

Which means more cuts for basic programs (healthcare, food, housing, small business, Medicare, social security, etc) and of course more for Defense, Ballrooms, Trump branded monuments, and gold trinkets for the Oval Office

They’re stealing from the Treasury on the way out the door ..

Take a guess where this leads …

Americans Are Falling Into The Socialist Trap By Blaming Capitalism For Damages Of Statism​

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,



Americans are falling into the socialism trap by not realizing that solving big government problems with an even bigger one is dangerous. Many blame capitalism for their affordability problems, when the true cause is statism. Statism is the gradual replacement of civil society, markets, savings, and individual choice by political control, public spending, regulation, taxation, and monetary intervention. The predatory state that I discuss in my book The New Global Economic Order represents the extreme manifestation of statism. It is a system where the political class extracts wealth and freedom from families and businesses to sustain itself, reward dependent clients, and exert control over society.


Big government, high taxes, constant money printing, and cronyism are not free-market capitalism.


Socialism markets itself well because scholars and politicians always judge socialist policies on their headline intentions, not on its disastrous results. As such, socialism is the perfect ideology for elites. It offers moral superiority and compassionate rhetoric while making those it claims to defend poorer, more dependent, and less free. By the time people realize the promise was a trap, the state is already too large, too powerful, and uses repression on the same people it vowed to protect.




Big government, interventionism, money printing, and high taxes have obliterated the economy and demolished the opportunities for middle-class families and small businesses to thrive. More government, taxes, printing, and interventionism will only cripple it further.

If big government, large subsidies, high taxes, and political control of the economy were the answers to modern affordability challenges, France would not be in stagnation, social discontent, and suffering massive debt and deficit problems. Furthermore, there is no single example of an economy that has solved the affordability, inequality, and cost of living problems by imposing political control and monetary financing of government debt.


The public sector does not belong to “the public”; it is a taxpayer-funded architecture controlled and managed by politicians, who consistently demand more taxes and more spending to provide the same or lesser services. There is no such thing as nationalization; it is politicization.

Many young Americans have been taught to believe that their frustration with housing, low real wage progress, weak savings returns, and declining upward mobility proves that capitalism has failed. However, the evidence shows something very different. In most developed economies, and increasingly in the United States since 2008, the dominant force is not free-market capitalism but a model of big government, chronic deficit spending, high debt, rising taxes, monetary debasement, regulatory obstruction, and political interventionism that protects insiders while penalizing new entrants. That is why so many millionaires and wealthy people support socialism. It is the perfect way to eliminate a merit-based system, obliterate competition, and keep privileges provided by political affiliation while demanding even more government control. Cronyism is a direct consequence of statism and a step toward socialism.


Few people are richer and more powerful than socialist tyrants and their enablers. Meanwhile, socialism needs poor people that stay poor and remain submissive to the state. Socialism replaces success-driven inequality with a politically directed one. However, in statism inequality is a matter of price, not availability. Socialism leads to hyperinflation and scarcity because it ignores economic calculation and uses the debasement of currency to expropriate the wealth created by the remains of the private sector and keep citizens dependent and submissive, while the political leaders enjoy the perks of privilege. By eliminating the incentives to make money, thrive, and prosper, socialism delivers the opposite of what it promises. However, by the time people find out, they cannot escape.





This is why Americans are falling into the socialism trap when they should be blaming statism, not capitalism. Socialism is the perfect ideology for elites because it wraps coercion in moral vanity. It offers compassionate rhetoric and a posture of moral superiority while making the very people it claims to defend poorer, more dependent, and less free.


The cats promise free cheese to the mice who do not understand why it is “free.”


The trap works because it sounds compassionate.


The attraction of socialism is not that it works. It is that it looks virtuous. It is not. It promises security, fairness, dignity, and protection from the instability of the market. But by the time citizens realize that the promise was a trap, the state is already too large, too expensive, too interventionist, and too powerful to reverse easily.


The pattern of statism is evident across developed economies. The IMF projects general government expenditure in advanced economies at 40.7 percent of GDP in 2026, while the OECD reports average government expenditure across OECD countries at 49.3 percent for OECD EU members. In countries like France, government spending exceeds 57% of GDP. The result is stagnation, social discontent, and a rising cost of living while the so-called “free things” become very expensive in the long run. Having constantly deteriorated “free” services in exchange for rising taxes, unaffordable housing, and fewer opportunities is a very bad trade. These are not the figures of a minimalist system. They are the figures of political allocation on a massive scale.


If bigger government, higher taxes, and more intervention were the route to social justice, young people would be thriving, and socialist economies would be global leaders. Instead, they suffer inflated asset prices, unaffordable housing, diminishing value deposits, and worsening access to the middle class. This is not because markets are too free, but because governments are too dominant.


China and the Nordic countries are not proof that socialism works but evidence that when nations abandon socialist-controlled economic policies and implement what many in the West would call “unbridled capitalism,” it leads to growth and wealth.

The bad news is that the same big government fiscal model keeps expanding despite its failures. The IMF estimates that advanced economies ran an overall fiscal deficit of 4.4 percent of GDP in 2025 and projects 4.8 percent in 2026. Global gross public debt rose to 93.9 percent of GDP in 2025 and is projected to reach 100 percent by 2029, while public debt across many advanced economies remains historically high. Far from correcting past excesses, the political system continues to borrow against the future to preserve the privileges of the present. Thus, politicians that have become the new aristocrats blame millionaires and the wealthy for the current situation, when even when they confiscate rising percentages of all the wealth of the rich, the economy only worsens. This is the predatorial statism I mention in my work. Politicians absorb more of a nation’s wealth every year and then blame those who create wealth to promote envy, hate and dependency.


Monetary debasement bloated the state


This model has been sustained by central banks that repeatedly cushioned governments and sovereign debt from the consequences of excess spending and irresponsible fiscal policies. Cross-central-bank data show that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet peaked at $8.97 trillion in April 2022, the Eurosystem at €8.84 trillion in June 2022, and the Bank of Japan at ¥764.8 trillion in August 2024, equivalent at their peaks to 34.5 percent, 64.2 percent, and 125.8 percent of GDP respectively. Even in 2026, those balance sheets remain extraordinarily large relative to national output.


That is not neutral technocracy. It is a mechanism that penalizes saving, subsidizes debt, weakens price discovery, inflates financial assets by disguising the risk of sovereign debt, and quietly creates a transfer of wealth from savers, workers, and wages to the overly indebted governments. When the state spends too much and the central bank disguises the consequences, citizens are told they are being protected. However, they are being impoverished through currency dilution and asset inflation.


Artificial money creation is never neutral. It disproportionately benefits governments and owners of assets that can protect themselves from monetary inflation. At the same time, it always hurts real wages, deposit savings, and those with no assets. Politicians try to tell you that they can make the effect neutral through taxation, government transfers, and expropriation. However, it is only a trick to make workers and small earners more dependent on a state that never fulfills the promise of easy money, because impoverishment does not change course; it accelerates.


Big government makes you poor and bigger government makes you poorer.



Socialism empowers elites, not citizens.


Socialism is often sold as a rebellion against privilege, but in practice it is one of the most effective tools ever designed to entrench it. The bigger the state, the more valuable political access becomes. The more interventionist the system, the easier it is for large incumbents, bureaucracies, and connected interests to dictate regulation, capture subsidies, suppress competition, and decide who receives favors.

That is why socialism is so attractive to elites. It allows them to speak in the language of compassion and humanity while building structures of dependency. It provides them moral cover for higher spending, higher taxes, more control, and more bureaucracy, even as those policies reduce productivity, punish work and investment, and trap millions in stagnation. The elite doesn’t suffer under socialism because they can store their wealth outside of the system, while those who vote for more government often wonder why they are worse off each time.


The answer to an inefficient and indebted state is not an even bigger one. More government, more taxes, and more interventionism will not solve what big government, rising taxation, and interventionist planning have already damaged. They will only cripple the economy further by reducing incentives to work, save, invest, build, and innovate.


The housing crisis is a good example. The OECD points to public policy choices such as land-use restrictions, zoning barriers, and supply bottlenecks as central drivers of affordability problems. However, the socialist political answer is not to remove barriers and expand supply. It is to add more subsidies, more controls, and more layers of intervention that protect incumbents and deepen the distortions.


Young Americans are not living the failure of capitalism. They are living the cumulative failure of statism, big government, eternal deficits, debt dependence, monetary interventionism, regulatory burdens, and tax systems that penalize work and capital. By the time the rhetoric of compassion gives way to the reality of misery, the socialist system is already built to punish the same citizens it claimed it would protect.


Prosperity and equality of opportunity require the opposite of socialism. It needs smaller and efficient governments, budget control, an open and free monetary system, lower barriers to innovation and businesses or housing supply, and a tax system that supports effort, saving, and entrepreneurship, not dependency, spending, and borrowing. Socialists know they cannot sell socialism by itself. No one would vote for them. All the examples of socialist central planned economies have failed miserably. They need to sell it by using fake examples- the Nordic countries- and disguised as a compassionate “improvement” of the current system in which you will not lose the growth and access to goods and services you have today, you just need to give even more power to politicians. The lie of not losing anything and only winning if you transfer more power to socialist politicians is always followed by stagnation, dependence, poverty, and repression.

Socialists always say, “true socialism has never been implemented,” which is obviously a lie. Socialism is not a great idea badly or incompletely implemented. It is a dreadful idea perfectly executed. The trap is set when the socialists finally persuade the population to embrace socialism. They take over institutions, create a dependent and submissive society and demolish democracy from within, while waving the banner of “democratic socialism”—which is an oxymoron, as socialism is always tyranny and control, not prosperity. However, by then, you cannot get out of it.


Blaming capitalism for the disasters produced by political interventionism is not a mistake; it is a strategy to sell the socialist trap.

What’s happening in the bond market should scare the ever living shit out of you, your pastor, your mistress’ dog walker, the dog itself, the dog’s Instagram manager, your cardiologist who’s about to have his own event, your cardiologist’s cardiologist, the sommelier at Per Se who just spilled a $4,000 Burgundy after glancing at his 401(k), every Goldman MD who told his kid “bonds are the boring safe part,” those kids now at Deerfield learning what “collateral call” means, your local zoning board, your local zoning board’s mistress, the appraiser who valued your neighbor’s house at $2.4M last spring, that same appraiser now driving Uber, the guy who wrote the “New Neutral” thesis, his editor, his editor’s editor, PIMCO’s entire Newport Beach parking lot, every family office analyst under 30 who’s never seen a real bear steepener, every family office analyst over 60 who’s seen too many and is currently day-drinking Sancerre at the Yale Club, the Yale Club sommelier — same guy, second job now, the entire concept of “term premium,” which we brought back like a Marvel character nobody asked for, Bill Ackman’s Twitter fingers, Bill Ackman’s Twitter fingers’ Twitter fingers, every CIO who wrote “we like the belly of the curve” in a Q2 letter, the belly of the curve, currently in the ICU, the ICU’s billing department, the ICU billing department’s collections agency now factoring receivables at 14%, your uncle who’s been screaming about hyperinflation since 2011 and is finally right for the wrong reason, your other uncle who’s been screaming about deflation since 2011 and is somehow also right, both uncles at Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving itself, canceled, every Bogle disciple who “stayed the course” straight into a 30% drawdown on TLT, the Bogleheads forum mods currently deleting posts, every insurance company that used the word “matching” in a footnote, every actuary who assumed “mean reversion,” mean reversion, sending regrets, the entire municipal bond desk at any bank you’ve heard of, the muni desk’s HR department, the HR department’s severance budget, David Rosenberg refreshing his own newsletter, Jeff Gundlach’s PowerPoint remote, Jamie Dimon’s letter to shareholders — the version he had to rewrite Sunday night, the ghostwriter who rewrote it, Larry Fink’s teleprompter, the teleprompter operator now updating his LinkedIn, every “duration is your friend” tweet from 2023, currently being quote-tweeted with a laughing emoji, every “cash is trash” clip on YouTube, the algorithm surfacing them at exactly the wrong moment, and finally — you, because you scrolled this far and still haven’t checked what the 30-year did today.

Rates don’t care about your narrative. Or your allocation. Or your uncle. Or your uncle’s other uncle.

This should go well. (I think it was actually decided back in May)

Retail traders up at 3am trading in a low volume highly manipulated casino. ...
Might as well just burn the money in the fireplace

Have you ever watched after hours and overnight trading patterns?
....buy energy drink and mental healthcare stocks