Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

bigredfish said:

Egypt charges between $200,000 and $700,000 for each passage through the Suez Canal; for large container ships or tankers, this figure can exceed $1 million.

Turkey charges a passage fee for the Istanbul Strait.

Canada charges for the St. Lawrence Seaway.

Panama collects between $100,000 and $450,000 for each passage; the passage cost for large Neopanamax ships through the Panama Canal reaches $500,000.

The United States charges for the St. Lawrence Seaway.

Iran, however, has refused to charge fees for the Strait of Hormuz for decades. It has made passages free! Despite all the smears, sanctions, and isolation it has faced, it did this. And you expect me to believe that Iran is the 'bad guy' here?”

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• Parallels to Vietnam (0:00-2:43): Pape argues that the U.S. is "replaying" the Vietnam War decision-by-decision. He cites quotes from President Lyndon Johnson that reflect current political paralysis, where withdrawing is seen as a humiliating defeat, even though the military strategy is viewed as fundamentally flawed.
• U.S. Military Strategy (2:43-7:25): The U.S. has concentrated naval forces in the Gulf of Oman. Pape suggests that the approximately 8,000 ground troops (Marines and 82nd Airborne) are likely positioned to capture a small Iranian port town, such as Chabahar or Jask, to achieve a symbolic victory despite the risks.
• Public Opinion and Support (8:56-10:53): Polling indicates that while the war is unpopular with the general public (53-57% oppose it), support within the MAGA constituency is high (77-85%). Pape notes that American troop deaths tend to harden political divisions rather than sway public opinion against the war.
• Escalation Risks (10:53-15:15): Pape estimates a 70% probability of U.S. ground troops entering Iran in the near term. This is driven by economic pressures and the closure of key oil infrastructure in the Red Sea. The Supreme Leader's rhetoric about "unforgettable lessons" signals that Iran is committed to revenge.
• Mass Casualty Concerns (15:15-19:18): Pape identifies a mass casualty attack against U.S. forces or civilians as the most likely next step. He warns that such an attack could happen anywhere in the world and would likely trigger further hardening of support for continuing the war.

mat200 said:

BS reasoning .. those poor Iranians have not been charging.


Let's get the fact out there on this.

1) Iran is hitting shipping on the Omani side of the Straight of Hormuz

So, Iran "refusing" to charge fees .. well .. BS, they are stealing from Oman by not letting ships pass through Omani waters and letting Oman charge.


2) Suez is man made, and MUST be maintained. This costs money, and Egypt controls both sides of the territory.

3) Panama, the same, man made. Major maintenance and limited capacity as each passage uses water from dams upstream that have been collected during rainy season.

4) St. Lawrence Seaway the same .. man made, maintenance and work needed. ( it has locks also )

5) Iran DOES NOT own the Straight of Hormuz.
The Straight of Hormuz is not man made.


If you want to play that game, then the UK should be able to charge for passage by the Straight of Gibraltar

also the Strait of Malacca each of these countries could charge .. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore

Taiwan Strait ... guess Taiwan could charge money for that one

Strait of Dover .. guess UK gets the money for that one instead of France

Italy should be able to control the transit fees for any ship going from one side of the med to the other ..

Cuba, heck they should get money for anyone coming to the US Ports in the South .. all they need is a few drones

Danish Straits, Denmark should be all the fees for any ship coming out of the Baltic ..

Guess this is why Trump wants Greenland, so he can charge money for any ship transiting by Greenland


We can go on with this forever, and it will destroy the world economic system if freedom of navigation is thrown out.

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mat200 said:

Iran, however, has refused to charge fees for the Strait of Hormuz for decades. It has made passages free! Despite all the smears, sanctions, and isolation it has faced, it did this. And you expect me to believe that Iran is the 'bad guy' here?”

YES .. Iran is the bad guy ..

You need to look at the larger geo-political actions they have done and the growth of their proxies.

Iranian IRGC 100% is anti-USA interests.

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Seven Strategic Options for the US:​

1. Negotiated Armistice (1:16 - 3:11): Deemed very unlikely, as Iran sees no advantage in a deal and expects to wait until the US political climate shifts.
2. Armed Containment (3:12 - 5:10): A strategy of protecting shipping lanes (similar to Operation Earnest Will). McBeth considers this his preferred option, though it is expensive and faces political vulnerability.
3. Continued Bombing (5:11 - 6:06): Considered the most likely path due to low risk and visibility, though McBeth notes it is unlikely to force a change in Iranian behavior.
4. Declare Victory and Disengage (6:07 - 8:06): Viewed as unlikely by the administration, though it could be forced by Congress cutting off funding.
5. Betting on Regime Collapse (8:07 - 9:05): Classified as very unlikely, as Iran has demonstrated unexpected resilience despite severe economic blockades.
6. Ground Operations (9:06 - 11:52): Includes options like seizing Hormuz Island or special forces raids on Pickax Mountain. McBeth assesses these as very unlikely due to the current operational environment.
7. Nuclear Option (11:53 - 14:39): Discusses the theoretical use of a nuclear gravity bomb or a special forces-delivered nuclear demolition charge on Pickax Mountain. While tactically effective for ending Iran's nuclear program, he assesses the chance of implementation as almost zero for a bomb and very unlikely for a raid.

Key Takeaway:​

• The Drone Threat (0:00 - 3:50): Pape explains that neutralizing Iran's drone capability is an immense challenge. The drones are small, easily hidden in mountainous terrain, and Iran has the capacity to produce thousands of them, making a military solution highly impractical.
• Economic Consequences (3:51 - 6:40): Even if the threat were mitigated, private shipping companies are unlikely to navigate the Strait of Hormuz due to the extreme value of tankers ($300 million each) and safety concerns, leading to potential supply chain collapse.
• Energy Reserves and Crisis (6:41 - 10:20): Global strategic oil reserves are at their lowest levels since 1983. Pape notes that the U.S. has been forced to tap into these reserves following the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and with Houthi interference in the Red Sea, the world faces a potential "bedlam" scenario regarding oil availability.
• Political Stakes (10:21 - 17:00): President Trump faces a "fork in the road" between allowing Iran control of the strait or risking global economic chaos. This decision is further complicated by the upcoming midterm elections, with Pape arguing that military escalation is a desperate move to avert an economic crisis that could be politically devastating for the administration.
• Titanic Metaphor (17:01 - 20:13): Pape compares the current situation to the Titanic approaching an iceberg, suggesting that the administration's current path is likely to fail, regardless of whether they choose to escalate or retreat.