Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
Thinking out loud
4 potentially major and seemingly unrelated issues heading into next week:
1- the ME war. Gold and Oil both up big in futures and obvious. They could cool by Monday morning but I can’t imagine they both don’t open up big.
(Longer term thinking is Oil rallies after the dust settles as OPEC pledges increased production)
2- Privste Credit blowing up. This year’s “subprime”. Shady lending, big losses, write downs, does it/is it already spreading to Banks which already got slaughtered last week?
3- two of the biggest trading firms are facing accusations of illegal trading. Citadel and Jane Street. This is sending shockwaves through the trading system. Are there more?
4- the Anthropic AI fiasco potentially kills the biggest and arguably best AI agent player - $300 Billion tech company with serious revenues. Fallout could be wide on a tech/AI industry that by most accounts is the only thing holding the market together. (Though major rotation out of tech/AI has occurred in the past 2 weeks) as the writing is on the wall that even if it IS the next big evolution for mankind, it will take much longer and much more $ for infrastructure than anyone imagined.
All of this with a backdrop of stupid high stock valuations, an economy that despite the rhetoric from the White House, by most any real measure, Jobs, Inflation, manufacturing, housing, spending/debt etc,…. is going the wrong way.
I’m inclined to park as much as I can afford (in my play accounts, not touching the nest egg in fixed income accounts of course) in Gold.
I’d like to hear something that tells me we’re not heading towards a 2000 or 2008 crash in the coming weeks/months but I’m just not seeing it.
4 potentially major and seemingly unrelated issues heading into next week:
1- the ME war. Gold and Oil both up big in futures and obvious. They could cool by Monday morning but I can’t imagine they both don’t open up big.
(Longer term thinking is Oil rallies after the dust settles as OPEC pledges increased production)
2- Privste Credit blowing up. This year’s “subprime”. Shady lending, big losses, write downs, does it/is it already spreading to Banks which already got slaughtered last week?
3- two of the biggest trading firms are facing accusations of illegal trading. Citadel and Jane Street. This is sending shockwaves through the trading system. Are there more?
4- the Anthropic AI fiasco potentially kills the biggest and arguably best AI agent player - $300 Billion tech company with serious revenues. Fallout could be wide on a tech/AI industry that by most accounts is the only thing holding the market together. (Though major rotation out of tech/AI has occurred in the past 2 weeks) as the writing is on the wall that even if it IS the next big evolution for mankind, it will take much longer and much more $ for infrastructure than anyone imagined.
All of this with a backdrop of stupid high stock valuations, an economy that despite the rhetoric from the White House, by most any real measure, Jobs, Inflation, manufacturing, housing, spending/debt etc,…. is going the wrong way.
I’m inclined to park as much as I can afford (in my play accounts, not touching the nest egg in fixed income accounts of course) in Gold.
I’d like to hear something that tells me we’re not heading towards a 2000 or 2008 crash in the coming weeks/months but I’m just not seeing it.
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 17,894
- 30,088
4- the Anthropic AI fiasco potentially kills the biggest and arguably best AI agent player - $300 Billion tech company with serious revenues. Fallout could be wide on a tech/AI industry that by most accounts is the only thing holding the market together. (Though major rotation out of tech/AI has occurred in the past 2 weeks) as the writing is on the wall that even if it IS the next big evolution for mankind, it will take much longer and much more $ for infrastructure than anyone imagined.
imho this is massive, President Trump on a whim is attempting to kill the number 1 AI agent player ..
also, I hear Hollywood employees are getting very concerned about their job prospects.
This could result in a ripple effect if they are no longer able to afford their expensive California Real Estate mortgages .. gonna be bloody.
Actually, Hollywood actors may be, along with TV news readers (same), one of the only careers in demand in the current political environment…
Somethin's gotta give...
Who's more pressured to blink? Buyers or Sellers?
I submit it's Sellers.
If you're a Boomer with a large part of your net worth wrapped up in a house, whether you need it $ to retire or don't wish to watch that value go down the tubes for your heirs, you're feeling the pressure. House valuation is worth close to 0$ until you either A) sell it or B) use it as collateral for a loan. At 65 how many want to get into a loan against their house, again.
(*Sure there are some who dont need the $$ to retire, some that view it purely as shelter and passing down to heirs isnt a $ thing but a family thing, and some who will gladly go into debt again because they know they wont live long enough to pay it off and the debt isnt their problem. But for the Majority, its an asset)
Who's more pressured to blink? Buyers or Sellers?
I submit it's Sellers.
If you're a Boomer with a large part of your net worth wrapped up in a house, whether you need it $ to retire or don't wish to watch that value go down the tubes for your heirs, you're feeling the pressure. House valuation is worth close to 0$ until you either A) sell it or B) use it as collateral for a loan. At 65 how many want to get into a loan against their house, again.
(*Sure there are some who dont need the $$ to retire, some that view it purely as shelter and passing down to heirs isnt a $ thing but a family thing, and some who will gladly go into debt again because they know they wont live long enough to pay it off and the debt isnt their problem. But for the Majority, its an asset)
OPEC to the rescue! (payback as they led the behind the scenes push to get the US to topple Iran)
A note from RBC Capital Markets suggests that Washington has been warned by regional leaders that $100-a-barrel oil is a “clear and present danger.”especially with limited OPEC spare capacity.
If the conflict is brief, price spikes may fade. But a prolonged escalation—especially if Iran applies economic pressure—could push prices much higher.
The region is also critical for gas: 20% of global LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where flows are now nearly halted. Asian buyers are scrambling for alternatives.This could be the biggest disruption to global gas markets since the Ukraine war.
Re: Oil
1) China has 40% of global oil stockpiles: they will be fine "for a while"
2) US gets no oil from Middle East & controls Venezuelan oil now. No gasoline shortage, but prize hikes will hurt.
3) EU is FUCKED
4) Japan & India highly exposed (major oil importers)
1) China has 40% of global oil stockpiles: they will be fine "for a while"
2) US gets no oil from Middle East & controls Venezuelan oil now. No gasoline shortage, but prize hikes will hurt.
3) EU is FUCKED
4) Japan & India highly exposed (major oil importers)
Last edited:
I think Dear Leader wanted this wrapped up before markets open tomorrow. Or for that matter tonight when futures open.
If Iran doesnt capitulate quickly, it will be interesting in the markets to say the least.
Many think the US markets had the event "priced in" but at a far lesser intensity conflict and certainly not one that drags on.
The big risk is of course contagion among other local and not local players.
If Iran doesnt capitulate quickly, it will be interesting in the markets to say the least.
Many think the US markets had the event "priced in" but at a far lesser intensity conflict and certainly not one that drags on.
The big risk is of course contagion among other local and not local players.
Last edited: